Shocking US jobs data couldn't have come at a worse time for Kamala Harris | American economy

With just four days until Tuesday's presidential election, the poor jobs numbers couldn't have come at a worse time for Kamala Harris.

Certainly, unique factors explain why the world's largest economy created only 12,000 new jobs in October.

Last month, two violent hurricanes Helene and Milton hit the United States. Temporary layoffs caused by the disruptions led to an estimated reduction of 20,000 to 50,000 employees. Manufacturing employment fell by 46,000, with most of the decline due to a strike at aerospace giant Boeing.

But that will bring little comfort to the Harris camp in a knife-edge race for the White House.

Even accounting for hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the employment data was weak. The consensus among analysts who knew the specific factors in advance was that job growth was expected to slow from 254,000 in September to 113,000 in October.

Bradley Saunders, of consultancy Capital Economics, said: “All things considered, we believe the upper limit of affected disruptions was around 90,000, meaning that by removing them the wage bill would only have increased than a disappointing figure of 102,000.”

Job growth for August and September was revised down by a total of 112,000 over the two months. This suggests that the demand for labor has declined at a crucial time.

Those with a long enough memory will remember that something similar happened in the UK during the 1970 election, when the mood in the final days of the campaign was affected by poor monthly trade figures.

As with the US jobs data, there were reasons why Britain's trade deficit suddenly widened. The arrival in the UK of two of Boeing's new wide-body jets has boosted the value of imports.

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The Conservatives exploited this data as evidence of an underperforming economy and won an election that most polls showed they were poised to lose. The poor trade figures led voters to question Labour's message that the economy was back on the right track after the devaluation of the pound in 1967.

Harris can now expect Donald Trump to use the jobs numbers as a weapon in the final days of the campaign. Although it is by far the best-performing G7 economy since the pandemic, many American voters feel worse off due to the rising cost of living. Special factors or not, the low employment figures will do nothing to counter this impression.

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