US elections could shape China's long-awaited fiscal stimulus plan: analysts

The outcome of Tuesday's US presidential election is expected to determine the scale of China's long-awaited fiscal stimulus package, with a victory by former President Donald Trump likely to lead to increased spending to offset the impact of possible customs duties, according to analysts.

Estimates suggest that the size of China's fiscal stimulus would be around 10 to 20 percent larger if Republican candidate Trump wins over Vice President and Democratic rival Kamala Harris.

And the scheduling of a five-day meeting of China's top legislature, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), which will closely coincide with the US elections, reflects the importance of external factors on domestic policies, highlighting the impact of external shocks on domestic politics. economy and sentiment, said Su Yue, senior China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

The NPC will likely determine the size of fiscal stimulus based on the outcome of the US elections. If Trump comes to power, the government could signal more aggressive stimulus measures to ease market concerns about China, Su said.

The EIU expects about 6 trillion yuan ($844 billion) in special sovereign bonds for debt swaps and recapitalization of big banks, and 4 trillion yuan in special bonds from local governments for the acquisition of unused land and unsold housing stock, mainly aimed at alleviating liquidity problems. for developers.

If Trump is elected, stimulus measures will likely exceed that magnitude, or the NPC will take a more proactive engagement, Su added.

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