Trump tariffs hit UK economy by $20 billion

Thank you for your participation. We start the day with a warning that the Donald Trump administration's tariffs could deliver a $20 billion hit to the UK economy.

CEBR said that if the next president planned to impose tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods and 20% on the rest of the world without retaliation, it would hit UK GDP by 0.9%.

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What happened overnight?

Asian shares fell early as traders tempered expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut after new signs of a U.S. economic recovery.

Japanese and Australian stock markets fell. South Korean benchmarks bucked the trend, leading a rally after Samsung Electronics announced its share buyback plan.

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, said: Another rate cut from the Federal Reserve is still likely in December, but this is a decisive moment. The pace of easing is likely to slow next year, especially given that President Trump's tariffs and additional tax cuts pose an upward threat to inflation in the one to three year outlook.

The dollar weakened slightly after rising 1.4% last week. As expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy decreased, Treasury yields soared, recording an upward trend for seven consecutive weeks.

These moves, coupled with concerns about China's growth, have devastated everything from the Australian dollar to emerging market bonds. Last week, Asian stock markets fell 3.9%, recording their worst sell-off in about six months.

In the commodities sector, oil prices fell for the week due to concerns about oil oversupply and lower demand from China, the largest importer of crude oil. As the United States mulls a final decision to lift some restrictions on Western-made weapons to attack limited military targets in Russia, Ukraine's allies are pressuring Volodymyr Zelenskyy to consider new ways to end the war with Russia.

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