The Covid-19 vaccine saved about 280,000 lives in the United States, a new study estimates

The researchers compared the actual trends in Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths with modeled trajectories of trends in the absence of vaccination.

By the end of June, researchers estimated that Covid-19 had about 279,000 additional deaths (about 46% more than this) and 1.25 million additional hospitalizations without vaccination. doing. Also, if vaccination progressed at half the pace, about 121,000 people could have died and more than 450,000 could have been hospitalized.

At a briefing on Thursday, Whitehouse Covid-19 Response Director Jeff Seiens called the new study “a powerful reminder of what’s at stake in our vaccination efforts.” ..

“This is more evidence that our government-wide strategy is working and has prevented serious further tragedy and turmoil in American life and life,” he said.

The researcher’s model considered factors such as the prevalence and infectivity of new variants, vaccine efficacy, migration patterns that promote daily contact, and age-related risk of severe health outcomes with Covid-19.

According to researchers, most of the additional deaths were caused by “increasing and spreading more infectious alpha mutants.” The alpha variant (also known as B.1.1.7, first identified in the United Kingdom) became the predominant strain in the United States in the spring. Without vaccination, researchers estimate that there could have been a spring surge with about 4,500 deaths daily, exceeding January’s peak of about 3,400 deaths per day. ..

Researchers compared actual trends and models from mid-December 2020 to the end of June 2021, when vaccination began in the United States. However, we used the data up to October 2020 to simulate the model to balance the decline in incidence with those incidence. From the surge in winter.

Almost 48% of the US population (about 156 million people) is fully vaccinated, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Over the past week, on average, about 432,000 people have been fully vaccinated daily, down about 76% from the peak pace of about 1.8 million daily in mid-April.

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