How to know if a delta variant can return a COVID limit to a bay area

Key indicators: positive test rate, hospitalization, death

However, experts carefully monitor the spread of variants and coronavirus data to see what happens.

Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco, said she would “watch the indicators carefully” using the CDC’s definition of increased infection.

San Francisco, a city with a population of about 875,000, currently has a positive rate of 0.7%, 1.7 per 100,000 population. In contrast, the worst winter surge in mid-January was about 5%, or 40 per 100,000.

As of July 4, 16 COVID-19 patients were admitted to San Francisco, 6 of whom were admitted to the intensive care unit.

Gandhi pointed out recently Promising news The number of deaths from COVID-19 has plummeted in the Bay Area. “The Bay Area is highly vaccinated,” Gandhi said. “I don’t think you need to worry yet.”

Peter Chin Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco, said the most important indicators to note are hospitalization, ICU admission, and death from COVID-19, to determine the rate due to the delta mutation. He said he would be investigated.

“I don’t think that even if you are fully vaccinated, you can prevent all infections,” he said. “What I still hope to happen is that the vaccine still avoids serious illness and death from COVID-19. This seems to be the case from the data emerging around the world.”

John Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, Berkeley, said the R-effectiveness, which represents the average number of people infected with the virus, is higher in the delta variant than in the alpha variant. .. The turn was higher than the original strain.

He said hospitalization was an “important indicator” and health officials were trying to avoid situations like the winter surge overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients.

“I don’t want to see people who are sick, but what we are worried about is people who are sick enough to require hospitalization,” he said. “Unless people need hospitalization, we’re not in trouble.”

Possible scenarios

Fully vaccinated people are less likely to get infected, and if they do, they are more likely to be asymptomatic or have the same effect as a mild cold, Swartsburg said. He added that it is unlikely that vaccinated people will “produce enough viral particles to effectively infect someone else with the virus.”

“I don’t think people should be worried, but they should be cautious,” he said. “There is little doubt that it will continue to outperform other variants. In the UK, it accounts for about 90% of all isolates. That’s where we’re heading.”

“The scenario of concern” was the increase in hospitalizations, especially in unvaccinated pockets across the country, Swartsburg said. He is optimistic that high rates of vaccination in the Bay Area and California will avoid what he saw last winter or even summer, but there are still some concerns.

“What people are worried about is the emergence of immune-resistant mutants from the vaccine,” he said. “And, of course, the way to prevent this is to get vaccinated.”

There are some concerns for children, especially those under the age of 12 who are not yet eligible for vaccination, and those with immunodeficiency. May not have relatively robust protection After inoculation.

Chin-Hong believes that children under the age of 12 “still unlikely to get and infect” the coronavirus, so they don’t need to wear a mask when they’re outdoors with their family. I will. But indoors, especially for long periods of time, such as going to the movies, he encourages children to wear masks and parents to do the same to model their behavior.

According to Green, the best thing parents can do is create a “vaccine barrier” around their children and make sure everyone around them is vaccinated.

“Given the fact that we don’t know if the vaccine provided their protective antibody, immunocompromised families present a potentially annoying problem,” said Chin Hong. “At this point, we recommend keeping social distances as hidden as possible in public until there is more guidance on boosters.”

The future of restrictions

In the event of a “delta variant epidemic” and further breakthrough infections, Green said he could imagine a state-wide mask ordinance being re-enforced.

But he doesn’t imagine a radical shutdown coming back.

“Vaccines provide enough immunological armor to protect us and keep our society open,” he said.

Chin Hong also said that mask mandates are possible.

“Continue to focus on increasing vaccine intake in the community,” he advised. “As the number of cases increases, some freedoms are inevitably receded … but hopefully it will only be temporary if hospitalizations and deaths remain stable and low. I am. “

Kelly Fan is a staff writer at the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] twitter: @KellieHwang