Verisk’s AIR Worldwide is improving its extreme event models for

BOSTON, July 27, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Disaster risk modeling company AIR Worldwide has announced the release of its significantly updated AIR Earthquake and Typhoon models for Japan. The past several years have reaffirmed Japan’s vulnerability to typhoons and earthquakes and prompted updates to the AIR database on industrial exposure, seismic risk and both earthquake and typhoon vulnerability including building and contents damage and business interruptions. These updated forms provide insurance and reinsurance companies a comprehensive view of the risks and calculation of the terms of an insurance policy for Japan. AIR Worldwide is a Verisk Corporation (Nasdaq: VRSK).

“Ten years ago, the massive Tohoku M9.0 earthquake became the most widely used earthquake in history, generating abundant ground motion data, damage notes, and detailed insurance claims data,” said Dr. Kazuya Fujimura, Vice President and Managing Director of Verisk. “The Tohoku earthquake informed the view of the risks associated with mega earthquakes not only in Japan but also globally, for example, the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand and the Lesser Antilles subduction zone in the Caribbean, where, with limited historical data, the Large earthquakes (M9.0 or greater) can be ruled out.”

The AIR Earthquake Model for Japan is a fully randomized model that captures the complex seismicity of Japan by generating events along known crustal faults, along and within subduction zones, and within different regions and regions with little or no historical seismic activity through soft background seismicity.

Our updated Japanese seismic model was informed by the Headquarters for the Promotion of Earthquake Research (HERP’s) latest seismic model but with modifications to the TDRP estimates for earthquakes in the Nankai Basin and some crustal faults to better reflect the uncertainties in the model. and parameters of HERP 2019 TDRP.

In the updated AIR earthquake model for Japan, numerically simulated tsunamis from all M > 7.0 tsunami-generated earthquakes from the time-dependent random earthquake catalog were used to determine coastal inundation and flow velocities. The random catalog reflects the AIR’s view of the time-dependent rupture probabilities of various sources, including tsunami sources such as those along the Nankai Basin. Our model incorporates the latest datasets, including detailed 3D subduction interface/fault geometry, high-resolution bathymetry/altitude data with coastal levees, dams and seawalls, regional tidal solutions for astronomical tidal impact calculation, and land use/land cover data (LULC) to capture the characteristics of Earth’s friction that affect operating range.

The AIR updated Japan Earthquake Model also includes insights from Earth motion prediction equations, including two weightings produced after the Tohoku earthquake and three produced before, to provide more accurate ground motion calculations for massive earthquakes, magnitude saturation, and a new magnitude scaling. Additionally, our insights into buildings’ seismic response gained from damage observations, detailed claims data, and changes in design and construction practices as they relate to tsunami risks inform our damage functions. With updated seismic activity and ground motion modules as well as the latest understanding of built environment vulnerability, the AIR model offers the most realistic view of earthquake risk in Japan.

Dr. said. “While there is no model that can predict when or whether a major tsunami earthquake will occur in Japan, using an updated Japan aerial earthquake model, can help prepare for tsunami losses by providing a detailed and accurate view of tsunami risks in Japan.” Bingming Shen-Tu, Vice President of Research, AIR Worldwide. “

“In 2018 and 2019, four powerful typhoons hit Japan, with a total insured loss of about US$30 billion in wind and flood damage,” said Dr. Boyko Dudov, Vice President of Research, AIR Worldwide. “As after any severe storm or season, Severe storms, we analyzed and reanalyzed a large number of meteorological data, market exposure, and company claims data sets from these past historical storms.”

The AIR Typhoon for Japan is part of the AIR Northwest Pacific Basinwide Typhoon model. Japan’s location in the Pacific Northwest basin combined with its unique topography puts it at risk from typhoon winds, precipitation, and storm surge. The model is a random event-based model that shares a catalog with other AIR-style countries in the region, including mainland China, Southeast Asia, and South Korea. The Japanese typhoon model captures the effects of tropical storms, typhoon winds, precipitation floods, and storm surges on insured properties in Japan.

Wind intensity calculations are based on storm intensity, size, location, forward speed, and direction, as well as basic terrain and land use in the area. An extratropical transition effect is also included to accurately assess the full impact on characteristics due to rainfall from tropical cyclones. Flood intensity calculations are based on the total accumulated precipitation on both plain and non-plain, soil type, land use/land cover data, and topography. The model includes separate damage functions for wind, precipitation flood, and storm surge hazards. In addition, the model explicitly considers regional variation in wind susceptibility due to differences in regional building practices. The model also takes into account the effects of current flood mitigation measures and lessons learned from the 2018 and 2019 hurricane season.

The AIR Earthquake and AIR Typhoon models for Japan are available in 2021 versions of the Touchstone® and Touchstone Re DRM systems.

About AIR Worldwide AIR Worldwide (AIR) provides risk modeling solutions that make individuals, businesses, and society more resilient to extreme events. In 1987, AIR Worldwide established the Disaster Modeling Industry and today it models the risks of natural disasters, terrorism, epidemics, casualty disasters and cyber accidents. Insurance, reinsurance, financial, corporate, and government clients rely on AIR’s advanced science, software, and advisory services for disaster risk management, insurance-related securities, longevity modeling, site-specific engineering analytics, and agricultural risk management. AIR Worldwide, a subsidiary of Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK), is headquartered in Boston, with additional offices in North America, Europe and Asia. For more information, please visit www.air-worldwide.com.

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