Risk of seismic catastrophe from the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand

Tens of thousands of people could die, and hundreds of thousands could be displaced, if the Hikurangi subduction zone causes a massive earthquake. File image. Image: Supplied/GNS Science

Experts have revealed the scale of the disaster facing Aotearoa if a massive earthquake and tsunami from our largest fault – the Hikurangi subduction zone – were to occur.

Tens of thousands of people could die, hundreds of thousands could be displaced, and the cost of damage to buildings could exceed $100 billion.

Some of the country's top scientific minds gathered at Te Papa to discuss the latest science on disaster risk, resilience and recovery at a conference run by one of the government-funded National Science Challenges – the Nature Resilience Challenge.

During a session on catastrophic risks, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) detailed its work over the past 18 months, using the 9.1 magnitude Hikurangi earthquake and tsunami as its “planning scenario.”

“Science tells us that a catastrophic event, such as the Alpine region earthquake, or the Hikurangi region earthquake and tsunami, is very likely to happen, if not in our lifetimes, in our children,” said NEMA Senior Advisor to CEO Sarah. Dutch.

“It could happen tomorrow.”

Ramifications

If the earthquake reaches this level, there will be four to eight minutes of shaking. By comparison, the ground shook for 10 seconds in the devastating 2011 Canterbury earthquake, Holland said.

Assuming 70% of people were able to evacuate, more than 22,000 people would die – most of them in the tsunami – and nearly 26,000 others would be injured.

About 400,000 people will be displaced and 30,000 homes destroyed or damaged by the tsunami alone.

There will be about $144 billion in damage to buildings from the earthquake and tsunami.

The extent of damage to critical infrastructure has not yet been determined.

“This type of catastrophic event is beyond our current arrangements, thinking and experience and beyond our imagination,” Holland said.

But preparations were underway.

Planning

Holland said NEMA plans to respond to “the worst of the worst,” working with 50 organizations to create a “disaster playbook” that can be applied to any disaster.

“These are things like managing mass casualties, providing food, water and shelter, restoring critical infrastructure, and creating emergency supply chains.”

She said international assistance would be vital for the latter, and the National Emergency Management Agency was planning what would be needed and how it would be distributed upon arrival in New Zealand.

Tom Wilson, NEMA's chief scientific advisor, said revealing the potential implications was scary, but necessary.

“These are large, large numbers,” he said.

“This is what drove change for CEOs. This is where elected officials really stood up and recognized that.”

But there was more work to be done to get the government and local communities to properly understand the level of risk.

“The insurance industry is going to have us kicking and screaming in this space one way or another,” he said.

“But we have to have a better platform to be able to compare and characterize the risks we face, and understand what potential risk remedies or resilience strategies might be.”

Drying up scientific funding

The scientific community was urged to continue their work.

But John Proctor, professor of natural hazards at Massey University, said that would be difficult, with 10-year funding for the National Science Challenges expiring in June.

He said some areas of research should stop completely.

“People doing planning and mitigation will rely on old knowledge and old scenarios, rather than thinking about the next big thing or the next problem that could happen,” Proctor said.

The national science challenges brought experts together, said Christy Lee Thomas, a lecturer at the University of Canterbury, who also leads the Whanake te Kura i Tawhiti Nui program which applies mātauranga Māori language to natural hazards research.

“Experts in different fields, mātauranga, science, planning, and politics,” she said.

“You've built these really good relationships, these really good teams… We want to continue to work together and build this momentum, but we need the resources to continue to do that and continue to support this planning.”

Invest in NEMA – Inquiry

Just three weeks before the conference, a national inquiry into last year's climate disasters found that Aotearoa was not prepared for large-scale emergencies.

In one of the investigation's many findings, it noted that NEMA is a small organization that “does not have the funding or expertise to undertake the full range of activities currently mandated.”

The agency can work more effectively if it focuses on leading preparedness and response activities – including setting standards, training, and leading planning for worst-case scenarios. The investigation recommended receiving more money to do so.

Meanwhile, a NEMA investigation into its response to the weather events is scheduled for July 16.

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