Google Chrome's cookie pivot has industry wary of another ATT-like upheaval

On Monday, Google announced that upon second thought (or third thought), it is not phaseing out third-party cookies in Chrome after all, but the announcement has left the industry scratching its head with unanswered questions.

Google now says it's introducing new browser-level controls to let users choose whether or not to allow tracking through cookies, but it seems no one, even within Google, knows how these controls will actually work.

Advertisers fear an Apple ATT-style universal prompt that would prevent consent to tracking. Because most users would decline to consent to tracking, this approach would effectively spell the end of Apple's mobile advertising ID as a viable targeting and measurement signal.

If Chrome were to mimic Apple, so few users would likely consent to tracking that third-party cookies could effectively be phased out as a valid signal, forcing advertisers to rely primarily on cookie alternatives like the Chrome Privacy Sandbox.

AdExchanger spoke to industry experts about their most pressing questions about Chrome.

Cookies or sandbox?

So far, the biggest unresolved issue is a request for greater clarity regarding any new consent prompts or interfaces that users will see.

This is all about user experience and defaults, says Paul Bannister, chief strategy officer at Raptive. “The more information we have about this, the better decisions we can make about the future.”

There are a few possibilities for what Chrome's consent interface could look like, says Jared Siegal, founder and CEO of Aditude. It could be similar to the mandatory consent management platform popups currently used widely in Europe as a consent mechanism for GDPR. The new consent tool could be embedded within a settings menu like current privacy controls, and it could be the user's choice whether to toggle the new option. The language allowed in the prompt itself could also make a big difference in terms of collecting opt-ins.

All of the experts AdExchanger spoke to agreed that Google had to carefully balance competing interests in designing its new interface. While ad tech businesses may want to steer users toward opting in, addressing privacy concerns means reducing tracking overall, which would result in more opt-outs. But more opt-outs should also encourage more widespread use of Chrome's Privacy Sandbox API.

One thing is for sure: there will be a correlation between the aggressiveness of UX updates and the extent to which Google is encouraged to make the Privacy Sandbox a success, said Stephen Caffrey, CEO of display.io and founder of Sponsorcart.io.

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Essentially, the Privacy Sandbox will only be successful if it is widely adopted among publishers, advertisers, and ad tech, and because the Sandbox has underperformed cookie-based campaigns in every test (even at Google) where cookies are still enabled, executives in these categories expect programmatic companies to stick with what they know.

If Chrome's new UX, focused on getting users to opt out of third-party cookies, rolls out by early next year, it likely won't have much of an impact on Privacy Sandbox adoption, said Bosko Milekic, chief product officer and co-founder of Optable. But if the UX doesn't nudge users toward opting out, adoption of the Sandbox may never reach critical mass among publishers and advertisers.

opt out

That being said, there's no guarantee that Chrome's new interface will prompt you for consent.

Currently, roughly 40% of Chrome users use their existing privacy settings to opt out of some form of cookie tracking, said Joe Root, co-founder and CEO of Permutive, and they're doing so without a universal prompt.

But a universal consent prompt for individual sites, or a prompt that asks users only once whether they want to block all third-party cookies, could lead to a significant reduction in addressability in Chrome.

If it's a prompt that can't be missed, Caffrey said, you can expect opt-out rates like ATT's. If it's buried in settings, it won't mean anything.

Opt-out rates like ATT's would be disastrous for most web publishers: According to Adjust, as of the second quarter of last year, the average opt-in rate for iOS users was just 34%.

Meanwhile, Criteo, which has been a Privacy Sandbox tester since the solution's early days, recently reported that publisher revenue on Chrome drops by an average of 60% in the absence of third-party cookies.

Additionally, because the opt-in will likely occur at the browser level rather than the site level, there is little opportunity for publishers to encourage or clearly communicate opt-in to tracking.

“Web publishers have high opt-in rates, between 60% and 70%, but we don't expect consumers to place the same trust in their browsers,” said Matthew Roche, co-founder and CEO of ID5, adding that the cookie debate has officially gone mainstream, with general audiences far less inclined to opt-in to being tracked by cookies than they were a few years ago.

Obviously, there are a lot of things that publishers could be worried about, and rightfully so.

The announcement is another example of the confusion publishers are facing in this situation, with a lack of transparency and unequal access to guidance widening the gap disadvantaged smaller publishers, said Amanda Martin, CRO at Mediavine.

But this announcement gives us a longer journey and greater opportunities as we move into a post-cookie world, she added.

And it's always possible that Chrome's opt-in rates aren't as bad as iOS's.

“We're optimistic that the consent dialogue and defaults will be much more streamlined and pro-competitive than what Apple has done with ATT,” Bannister said, adding that this seems likely given the involvement of the UK Competition and Markets Authority and Google's engagement across the industry.

“The exact form and wording of Chrome's new UX will have a huge impact on opt-in rates, so we expect to see intense negotiations among industry players over the details of this new user choice experience,” said Ian Trider, vice president of DSP products at Basis Technologies. Naturally, ad tech companies will want to see this done in a way that leads to higher opt-in rates.

Why pivot?

One question for Google is a very basic one: “Why?” Why reverse course now, after four hard years of effort?

Most experts agree that Google is unable to balance the privileges of the Privacy Sandbox (i.e., reduced third-party and cross-site tracking) with regulators’ requirements to avoid disrupting the online advertising industry or raising anti-competitive concerns.

“Separating the Privacy Sandbox and third-party cookie efforts relieves the Privacy Sandbox of pressure to adhere to a pre-determined timeline, making the development of a successful product more feasible,” said Miles Younger, head of innovation and insights at Digital University. Additionally, he said, it removes the drama of a cumbersome cookie phase-out timeline and shifts industry attention to the feasibility of the sandbox.

The increased attention on sandboxes could be a good thing, given that most experts who spoke to AdExchanger believe they are a poor alternative to cookies.

This is an incredibly complicated solution that the average publisher would never be able to support, Segal said, and it could inadvertently give Google even more control over the auction, defeating the purpose of the regulator. [negative] The impact on revenues for publishers, Google and everyone involved is huge.

Additionally, by shifting the burden of opting out of cookies onto end users, Caffrey said Google has successfully avoided being labeled a “cookie killer” by the advertising industry and protected itself from regulatory liability.

After all, he said, how do you legislate against end-user choice?

What next?

So where does the industry go from here?

Most experts agree that Google's about-face is no excuse to stop investing in post-cookie solutions.

Roche said that going forward, cookies will likely be deleted by users rather than by Chrome, which would put the industry in the same position it was in before Google's announcement.

IAB Tech Lab CEO Anthony Catulle said the advertising ecosystem still needs multiple solutions to safely and effectively target consumers, including alternative IDs, server-side solutions, privacy sandboxes, cookies, etc. This is effectively no different from what's happening today, as roughly 25% of the browser market is already cookieless.

While questions remain about Chrome's new consent interface, this announcement puts the industry on even stronger footing than before.

“Honestly, I'm happy about this latest curveball because it ends the constant delays and uncertainty,” Bannister said. “This really does seem like a workable plan for the first time.”

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