'It's not a matter of when, but if': Expert warns H5N1 avian flu outbreak could reach Australia this spring | Lord Howe Island

Tens of thousands of seabirds fly and chirp all around us, but only two birds break through the tree canopy.

These were Providence petrels, summoned by the trembling, shrill voice of birdwatcher and tour guide Jack Schick. Lord Howe IslandNow he holds it in both hands.

“They have such great personalities,” Schick said. “The island is their home. If anything were to happen to them, they'd be gone.”

News from overseas has Chic worried. Avian influenza strainsThe H5N1 flu strain has wreaked havoc on wild birds around the world and experts say it could hit Australia this spring, posing a low risk to the island's ecological value.

Australia is the only continent in the world that has been free of the deadly avian flu variant since new variants emerged in 2020. It has wreaked havoc on poultry, wild birds and mammals. Globally, the virus has caused more than 900 human cases and over 400 deaths since 2003, and has also spread to dairy cows since reaching the United States in 2021. Human infections have also been confirmed. Among people working in the U.S. dairy industry.

Nicholas Carlisle, a seabird expert who has worked on Lord Howe Island for more than 30 years, said the chances of an H5N1 outbreak were “highly unlikely” because there was no “certain route” for the virus to reach the island via infected seabirds or migratory birds.

And few birds live in flocks dense enough to transmit the virus, even if it did arrive, he said: There have been no reports of flocks of burrowing birds, such as petrels, being affected overseas.

“There are still risks and we need to be prepared for them … and there's still a lot we don't know,” Carlisle said. “I've always said people should be informed, not scared.”

Dr Michelle Wille, a senior research fellow at the University of Melbourne's Centre for Pathogen Genomics, said there was a “medium” risk across Australia that the virus could reach the country this spring because returning migratory birds could carry it.

“We need to remain vigilant. Perhaps the first stopping point is [of H5N1] “It should be in the north of Australia, but we can't say for sure,” she said.

Last year, a study led by Wille No virus evidence Although the virus has been detected in remote bird populations across the country, including in samples taken on Lord Howe Island, the likelihood of the strain reaching Australia in the future is “a matter of when, not if”, she said.

Lord Howe Island's biosecurity officer, Daryl Birch, said members of the island's citizen science network, many of whom keep chickens, had added protection and the risk of the virus getting onto the island was “low”.

virus Arrived in Antarctica in February Thousands of Adelie penguins have died, along with an estimated 650,000 native birds, 30,000 sea lions and 17,000 southern elephant seal pups since their arrival in South America in late 2022.

Dr Frank Wong, a senior scientist at CSIRO's Australian Centre for Disease Control, said the chances of H5N1 reaching Australia were “relatively low” because the country is not on the flight path of migratory ducks and geese, the main hosts for long-distance avian influenza viruses.

But the H5N1 strain has shown the ability to infect a wide range of wild birds, raising the possibility that it could enter through a “bridge” species, he said.

Jack Gough, operations manager for the Invasive Species Council, said an outbreak in Australia could lead to a “wildlife carnage” on the same scale as the Black Bushfires that ravaged Australia in the summer of 2019-20.

“We were lucky last year, let's hope we're lucky again this year,” Goff said. “It could be disastrous.”

a A study published last year The emergence of the H5N1 variant has put Australia's black swan at “significant risk”.

Gough said Australia's geographical isolation had so far prevented the virus from spreading, but it was possible that native bird species might be more susceptible to infection.

A lack of funding for research into the impact on other native bird species has left the country even more underprotected, Goff argues: “This has not been a priority for the government.”

In July, then-federal Agriculture Minister Murray Watt allocated $7 million to bolster Australia's defences against H5N1 variants. “The arrival of migratory birds means we constantly face risks that we cannot control,” Mr Watt said.

The H5N1 strain is a particularly virulent form of highly pathogenic avian influenza. State and Federal Governments are currently monitoring the outbreak of multiple strains of highly pathogenic avian influenza in New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and Victoria.

Chief Operating Officer Wildlife Dr Tiggy Grillo from the Australian Department of Health said educating communities living near migratory bird nesting sites about the signs of avian influenza, as well as surveillance and early reporting, was crucial to eliminating outbreaks.