Erdogan's tightrope walk with the Kurds DW 11/20/2024

When Devlet Bahceli, chairman of the Ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, shook hands with politicians from the People's Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), the gesture marked a political turnaround.

Until October, Bahceli had claimed that the left-wing pro-Kurdish DEM party, like its predecessor the HDP, was an extension of the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and should therefore be banned.

Even more surprising was Bahceli's next suggestion that PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan could be released in exchange for announcing his party's dissolution. Bahceli's party is considered the parent organization of the far-right Gray Wolves group and is known for its anti-minority ideology.

In the following days, Öcalan, 76, received a visit from his family for the first time in 43 months. He has been held in solitary confinement in a high-security prison since 1999.

A peace process with the PKK was established ten years ago, but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ended it a year later, in 2015.

After a few years without violence, the bloody conflict resumed.

The Turkish government has cracked down on Kurdish politicians in Türkiye and launched military operations in northern Iraq and northeast Syria.

The PKK has its headquarters in the Qandil Mountains in Iraq. A de facto autonomous Kurdish state, known as Rojava, has been established in northeastern Syria.

A carrot and stick approach?

Since Bahceli insisted on the possible early release of Öcalan, the Turkish population has been wondering what the government in Ankara is planning.

Why are its representatives seeking proximity to Öcalan at the very moment when local Kurdish elected officials are being dismissed from office?

At the end of October, Ahmet Ozer, mayor of Istanbul's Esenyurt district and member of the Republican People's Party (CHP), was arrested for his alleged links to the PKK.

A few days later, three Kurdish mayors in southeastern Turkey were replaced by state officials.

This also happened to Ahmet Turk, an 82-year-old veteran of Kurdish politics. He was elected and dismissed as mayor of the city of Mardin three times.

Observers agree that Erdogan is determined to become president of Turkey again.

However, a constitutional amendment would be necessary for a fourth term. For the moment, Erdogan does not have the necessary majority in Parliament.

Analysts say his plan is to use the carrot-and-stick approach to bring the Kurds and the pro-Kurdish DEM party into line by offering concessions, such as easing Ocalan's sentence. house arrest or possibly an end to the practice of imposing civil servants in the Kurdish regions.

Such measures could also divide the opposition.

Change of power in the Middle East?

Arzu Yilmaz, a political scientist at Kurdistan Hewler University in the Iraqi city of Erbil, believes there are other reasons for the latest developments.

“Above all, it is about the unstable situation in the Middle East and the US government's decision to withdraw US soldiers from Iraq and Syria by 2026,” she told DW.

Given Donald Trump's re-election, that could happen sooner than expected, she added.

About 2,500 American troops are still stationed in Iraq and some 900 in Syria, where they cooperate closely with local Kurdish militias.

“The balance of power in the Middle East is changing, but despite its ambitions, Turkey is not an important player,” Yilmaz said, believing that Ankara may want to change that.

Bese Hozat, co-president of the Kurdistan Communities Union, an umbrella organization for several Kurdistan parties, including the PKK, echoed these thoughts. “Turkey's geopolitical and geostrategic position and its influence in the region are gradually weakening,” she said in an interview, adding that this was “causing panic in the Turkish government.”

According to her, this pushed him to find a workaround and to try to use Kurdish leader Öcalan for his own purposes.

Military operations expected

Earlier this month, Erdogan announced he would soon close “security gaps on the southern borders.”

This marks a new series of Turkish military operations in Syria and Iraq.

Arzu Yilmaz believes that Iraqi Kurds have no reason to worry about the future since their status quo is enshrined in the Iraqi constitution.

However, the future of the autonomous Kurdish region in northeast Syria is more uncertain, she said, adding that so far the United States has supported the Kurds, but it remains to be seen. what would happen after the withdrawal of American troops. It was unclear who would fill the resulting power vacuum.

A key factor would be how Kurds in different regions cooperate with each other, she said: “This will determine whether Kurds ultimately emerge from this crisis stronger or weaker.”

Sources close to the PKK say a first meeting of Kurdish parties from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey took place in the Belgian capital Brussels in November, but the outcome of the discussion remains unknown.

The Kurds are the largest ethnic group in the world without a state of their own. According to estimates, more than 12 million people live in Türkiye, around 6 million in Iraq and the same number in Iran, and just under 3 million in Syria.

Germany is home to the largest Kurdish diaspora community, numbering around 1 million people.

This article has been translated from German.