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China facing the middle income trap by Nouriel Roubini

China facing the middle income trap by Nouriel Roubini


Although China obviously needs to strengthen private sector confidence and revive growth through a more sustainable economic model, it is not clear that Chinese leaders fully appreciate the challenges they face. The return to state capitalism over the past decade is clearly incompatible with President Xi Jinping's development goals.

NEW YORK This year, at the China Development Forum (the annual highest-level meeting between China's top politicians and CEOs, current and former policymakers, and academics like me), the discussion is focused directly on the risk of seeing China fall into the dreaded middle income trap. After all, few emerging economies have managed to join the ranks of high-income countries.

Will China be an exception to this trend? After more than 30 years during which China achieved Growth rates close to 10%, its economy has slowed sharply this decade. Even last year, with the strong rebound of the zero-Covid era, officially measured growth was only 5.2%. Worse still, the International Monetary Fund estimates that Chinese growth will fall to 3.4% per year by 2028 and, given current policies, many analysts expect its potential growth rate to be only 3% by the end of this decade. If this happens, China will effectively find itself in a middle-income trap.

Moreover, China's problems are structural rather than cyclical. Its slowdown is due, among other factors, to rapid aging, the bursting of the real estate bubble, massive overindebtedness of private and public debts (today close to 300% of GDP), and the shift from market-oriented to market-oriented reforms state capitalism. Powered by credit investment has become excessive as state-owned banks lend to state-owned enterprises and local governments. At the same time, the government is targeting the technology sector and other private companies, eroding business confidence and private investment.




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