What to expect from Olaf Scholz's visit to China? | News explained

Accompanied by a high-level trade delegation, the German leader is expected to address grievances over the trade deficit between the EU common market and the world.s second largest economy.

Scholz should also question Chinalinks with Russia in the middle of the war in Ukraine and Beijings aggression towards Taiwan a self-governing island that China claims as its own.

Scholz is scheduled to meet Xi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Tuesday in Beijing, the last day of his trip. It's ScholzOn his second trip to China as chancellor, he made his first visit in November 2022.

What is the plan for Scholz's return to China?

A lot has changed since Scholzhis last visit to Beijing. Last year, Berlin unveiled its very first Strategy on China aimed at reducing dependence on the Chinese market in critical areas and bringing Germany into line with EU efforts towards reduce risks of the Asian superpower.

And yet, Scholz travels with a group of industrial executives, reporting to BerlinHis intention to maintain business ties.

Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, former political advisor to the European Parliament and assistant professor in Taiwanfrom National Dong Hwa University, said the change in Germanythe language of China does not seem to materialize in reality.

The question is: why is Scholz going [Beijing] NOW? Ferenczy tells DWdescribing the trip as an element of Germany figure out how to meet your own commitments.

Philippe Le Corre, senior researcher at the Asia Society Policy InstituteThe China Analysis Center said perceptions were divided in Germany on how to continue doing business with China.

The division exists not only within the government coalition, but also between different industries, Le Corre said. There are at least two types of business groups, including those who want to invest more in China And those who believe that China is becoming too competitive.

How will Scholz solve the problems related to Ukraine and Taiwan?

In addition to this dilemma, Scholz faces pressure from Brussels on geopolitical issues. During his meeting with Xi, he will have to address China's support for RussiaIt is a war machine amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Also, ChinaThe growing military presence in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait has raised concerns in the West.

In Europe, interest in the Taiwan issue has never been stronger, even in Germany, which tends to be more business-minded than France or the United Kingdom. » said Le Corre, who expects Scholz to raise the Taiwan issue during his stay in China.

In June 2023, Scholz met with Chinas First Li in Berlin. According to ScholzDuring his comments to the German parliament, the chancellor had warned Beijing against using force to achieve territorial changes, particularly against Taiwan, although his comments to lawmakers would have been stronger than those he made under Li.s visit.

During the trip we can expect that Berlin will perhaps stay on the same line as what he said before, that the use of force is not acceptable, Ferenczy tells DW. But thisIt is the question of how they will balance security concerns and economic interests.

Le Corre shares a similar view.

TheyI'm not here to talk about geopolitics, Le Corre said, so the credibility of your language on politics or diplomacy is somehow hampered.

Beijing unfortunate with an EU investigation into its electric cars

China has its own issues with the EU, including the European Commission's investigation into Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and government subsidies.

The investigation was announced in September. This could allow European authorities to impose punitive tariffs on cheaper Chinese imports of electric vehicles in a bid to protect European manufacturers.

ChinaThe EU ambassador called the investigation unfair and said Beijing was cooperating because we want to avoid a situation in which both sides would have to resort to trade measures against each other.

Le Corre told DW that Scholz will have to comment on this during his trip, because Germany is Chinathe EU's largest trading partner. And the German leader would likely face retaliation from Beijing, with Chinese leaders asking the following questions: If you want to do business with us, why launch this investigation against Chinese electric vehicles?

Play different cards to different EU members

ChinaThe country's diplomatic efforts extend well beyond Germany. In May, ChinaXi is expected to visit Europe and meet French President Emmanuel Macron.

Analyst Le Corre told DW that Xi will likely play different cards since China is the champion of the division of European countries.

Noah Barkin, Senior Advisor at Rhodium GroupAccording to Chinese practice, the EU has spent the last year strengthening its economic influence with China through the use of trade tools and the launch of its economic security program.

But he emphasized this leverage effect can be weakened very quickly if the leader of EuropeThe country's largest economy is sending different signals to Beijing.

In this context, Ferenczy said she would expect Berlin to represent the message sent by the EU that trade with China must be rebalanced. Otherwise, I think that this trip that Scholz is undertaking only serves German interests.