Politics
The credibility of the future Pakistani government in the fight against separatism
The flag of Pakistan (Credits: Photos from Unsplash) Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 40 Number 12 Author: Ahsan Ali
Economic instability, political unrest, declining bilateral relations with the Afghan Taliban, terrorism on various fronts and, more recently, military escalation on the Iranian border have hit Pakistan.
The presence of military influence in Pakistan's political system exposed its flaws, leading to political unrest and the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi.
The country has become more politically uncertain due to the Pakistani elections. People accuse the elected government of Shehbaz Sharif of rigging and receiving support from the military establishment. This has jeopardized the government's credibility and its ability to fight separatists in Balochistan and the Durand border.
With the escalation of attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has an ideological affiliation with the Taliban government in Kabul, since 2021, the country has seen an increase in attacks.
Furthermore, Islamabad recently registered tensions with Tehran after an unanticipated incursion by Iran into Pakistani territory aimed at targeting Jaish al-Adl led to retaliatory measures by Pakistan and subsequent escalation of events along the Middle East border.
Pakistan: geopolitical scenario
Political uncertainty has plunged Pakistan since the removal of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in April 2022. Since then, Pakistan has experienced increased political instability, with the subsequent coalition government facing a lack of confidence from the market and, at the same time, an increase in imports.
As a result, dwindling foreign exchange reserves forced the government to turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance. Unfortunately, this decision proved disastrous for the Pakistani economy, as the government had to request a $3 billion bailout from the IMF in exchange for implementing unpopular austerity measures.
Coalition Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's political reputation among the people of Pakistan suffered a negative impact when he was forced to implement unpopular austerity measures. In contrast, former Prime Minister Imran Khan handled the situation effectively with the IMF and austerity measures, gaining popularity despite rising costs. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharifs successfully accepted IMF loans, but austerity measures in Pakistan began to worsen Pakistan's already turbulent situation, with no clear policy on how to handle the situation within a political framework. clear economic.
Increasing attacks by militant groups, mainly the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), are also worsening the situation, with resources and security under strain.
The TTP has worsened the situation of the coalition government with its increasing attacks on Pakistani territory. Members of the group have launched major security attacks in Pakistan, leaving law enforcement in peril with under-equipped and under-resourced police personnel.
The security situation is worsening with the attack on the mosque and security compound, and the entering into an alliance with other Pakistani militant groups in Balochistan to further threaten and destabilize Pakistan's national security.
TTP attacks have also inspired other radical militant groups, such as the Tehreek-e-Jihad (TJP) attack on the Dera Ismail Khan police station, demonstrating how radical Islamism is deteriorating the security situation in the Pakistan.
In Pakistan's backyard, insistent demands for the Taliban government in Afghanistan to do more to decimate and not provide sanctuary to the TTP, have fallen on deaf ears as support for TTP continues to be felt. Since both the Afghan Taliban and the TTP are ideologically aligned with each other, it is possible that the Afghan Taliban does not fall into the trap of Pakistan's strategic depth policy, as they also do not have could have been controlled by Islamabad in 1996.
The final blow came between Kabul and Islamabad when in September 2023 the border was closed, when TTP militants stormed two military outposts in the isolated Chitral region, killing four soldiers and 12 militants of the TTP shot down before withdrawing to Afghanistan.
This was the final straw that broke the Pakistan Army's patience with Islamabad's response to the closure of the Pakistan-Afghan border. The two states have engaged in bilateral negotiations, but the recent attack has escalated the conflict, leading to a decisive confrontation between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban in Kabul. Pakistan insisted on a forceful response against the TTP, as the country was already facing significant threat levels from the TTP amid political instability.
To increase pressure on the Taliban in Kabul, Pakistan dissociated long-standing Afghans on its territory by expelling even those who were born on Pakistani territory. The expulsion of millions of unregistered foreigners has also been condemned by the Afghan Taliban, the UN and human rights organizations in Pakistan.
The deportation of Afghans has pushed Islamabad and Kabul apart, and even the desire to fight cordially against certain groups has failed with the deportation and divisions over the approach to take against the TTP.
Relations further deteriorated in February 2024, with Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzais commenting on the Pakistan-Afghan border on the long-standing Durand Line border dispute after the expulsion of 500,000 Afghans out of 1.7 million Afghans and the requirement for passports. beyond the porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Tensions escalated significantly only after Pakistan carried out airstrikes in Afghanistan following the death of 7 soldiers in a North Waziristan suicide attack carried out by the Jaish-e-Fursan-e-Muhammad.
Pakistan's western border is also in peril in recent times, where the security threat has increased significantly. Both Pakistan and Iran face a long-standing ethnic conflict in Balochistan, where separatist movements have taken hold in Pakistan's Baloch province.
To combat separatism, the two countries have a mutual understanding of striking separatists who target security and civilian infrastructure. Some Baloch separatist factions in Pakistan, which have pledged allegiance to the TTP, have fueled the already inflamed separatism in Balochistan.
The two groups become closer through factional allegiance, which gives an idea of how the two groups form close ties with each other. Both recognized each other in their efforts and on issues such as the suicide training of Baloch separatists in Afghanistan and the Baloch grievances accepted in the propaganda video released by the TTP.
Although ideologically the two are different, with the Baloch separatists being more secular and marginalized than the TTP, which is a religiously oriented conservative Islamist, they both have a common enemy: the state of Pakistan.
Pakistan is already fighting a conflict with Baloch separatism and is suffering attacks from the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) within the state through attacks on the Pakistan Stock Exchange, the attack on the University of Karachi or attacks on Chinese people and unclaimed killings of Chinese nationals.
In January, Balochistan experienced more problems when it was hit by Iranian missiles targeting Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan in a miscalculated attack in which two children were killed, which did not only triggered week-long skirmishes between Iran and Pakistan, accompanied by retaliatory strikes. Days later, the two countries reconciled after the visit of Iranian foreign ministers, with the intention of fighting Baloch militants in a coordinated manner, sharing security intelligence and reducing the trust deficit, especially with Pakistan's cordial relations with Iran and more focused on the KPK border.
Conclusion
With the current political instability, Pakistan cannot properly deal with terrorist elements within the state as it is entangled on many fronts. The unpopular government might launch different military campaigns to fight the terrorists, but the people would be more concerned about this unpopular government due to the current financial crisis in the country.
Meanwhile, military institutional trust is also facing a crisis as public opinion is considerably low, with the population questioning their credibility, their influence on Pakistani politics and their past relations with the Kabul-based Taliban.
The police's capacity to combat the Taliban would remain weak because it is underfunded and underarmed to deal with the TTP and other terrorist elements that have acquired advanced weapons from the withdrawal forces of the United States and NATO.
From now on, the main security institution will remain subject to large-scale attacks, as is evident until it is reformed, trained and equipped with the appropriate weaponry to deal with the Taliban and other similar elements.
Tehreek-e-Taliban will continue to inspire more terrorist organizations, which will haunt Pakistan's security and put the country in danger until they are adequately dealt with. Additionally, for political reasons, Pakistan could deport the remaining Afghan refugees despite the conviction, but this action would face a labor shortage in the country and Afghans who were abroad would not send money in Pakistan with their families expelled from Pakistan.
Pakistan and Iran have more of a misunderstanding as a problem, with little at stake to fight the Iranians, but this problem will be resolved cordially and peacefully. The two countries could reach a more secure memorandum to combat militancy in the Balochistan region as a whole, but not everything is calculated as Balochistan is a growing political issue. A lot of odds are stacked against the Pakistan Army as heartbreaking stories of torture are coming to Balochistan.
Peace will remain fragile until the state and key playmakers reach a negotiated settlement with politicians and activists and begin real development in Balochistan by granting equal rights to the ethnic Baloch. Otherwise, the activities of Baloch and TTP militants will increase and could significantly raise the national security stakes in Pakistan.
Warning. The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of SpecialEurasia.
For more news, reports or analysis on Pakistan, contact us at [email protected].
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