Narendra Modi should stay in power The Irish Times

The first of seven rounds of voting in India's general elections, spread over almost as many weeks and bringing together more than 968 million voters, begins Friday as part of the largest democratic exercise in the world.

Friday's vote under the first-past-the-post electoral system will take place in 102 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, or lower house of Parliament. Two Anglo-Indian members will then be appointed as MPs by the Indian President, bringing the total number of seats to 545.

After six more rounds, voting will end on June 1 and the result will be known three days later.

Surveys indicate that after a decade in power, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to return to power for a third five-year term.

The only other prime minister to win three consecutive terms was Jawaharlal Nehru, hero of Indian independence from 1947 to 1964.

There is no clear, close challenger to the BJP, which has a 12 percent lead over an alliance of opposition parties, a recent survey by the Center for Developing Societies (CSDS) in New Delhi showed. Although some of the 10,019 respondents complained about rising unemployment and growing economic distress, four in ten said they would vote for the BJP. Nearly half chose Modi as their preferred prime minister, echoing many assessments of his popularity.

Pre-poll forecasts differ only on the number of seats the BJP is expected to win. Modi predicted the BJP would win 370 parliamentary seats, 67 more than its current tally of 303 and 98 more than the 272 MPs a party or coalition needs to form the federal government.

Modi's confidence is so unconditional that he has instructed senior officials in most federal ministries to prepare a 100-day road map for his new government.

Analysts say much of the BJP's optimism comes from fulfilling its long-standing promise to build a temple to the Hindu god Ram in Ayodhya, in northern India, in place of a 16th century mosque demolished by Hindu fanatics in 1992.

The Ram temple, scheduled for completion by the end of 2025, was inaugurated by Modi in January, partly with the impending elections in mind. The construction of temples and its consecration [by Modi] helped the BJP consolidate Hindu identity and pride, the CSDS poll revealed.

About 80 percent of India's 1.4 billion people are Hindu, championed by the BJP in its long-running agenda to spread Hindutva, or Hindu hegemony. Muslims make up about 15 percent of the population.

[ The Irish Times view on the Indian election: Modi tightens his grip ]

India's annual economic growth rate is about 7.2 percent, a vibrant stock market and generous government social programs that include free grain distribution to more than 800 million households and a monthly allowance of 1,250 rupees (14) to women from low-income families. , also attracted BJP voters.

These measures are complemented by widely publicized guarantees from Modi if he is elected. They include free rations to over 800 million families for five years and individual healthcare of up to Rs 5,637 for all citizens above 70 years of age. The provision of 30 million homes to those in need and free electricity are also promised.

Modi, who often refers to himself in the third person, told a recent campaign rally: Whenever hope fades, Modis guarantees begin.

[ Fighting for the rights of our deities: Indias divisive movement to reclaim temple sites ]

Political observers say the BJP's decisive advantage in the polls is reinforced by a fractured opposition plagued by incessant infighting, large-scale defections of several of its leaders to Hindu nationalists and the absence of coherent electoral strategy.

The Congress Party leads the 26 opposition parties, known as the Indian Alliance for Inclusive Development (INDIA). Commentators say Congress is reluctant to cooperate on seat-sharing.

They raised the issues of growing unemployment, crony capitalism and income disparity with 1 percent of rich Indians controlling 40.1 percent of the country's total wealth, but without much success.

Members of the INDIA bloc have also accused the BJP of using state investigative agencies as a weapon against several of their leaders for various, albeit nebulous, wrongdoings that have yet to be proven. This led to the recent jailing of two chief ministers from the bloc on corruption charges, rendering them unable to campaign for elections.

Political scientist Gilles Verniers recently told the BBC that there appears to be no ideological force unifying the opposition to combat the robust Hindu nationalism projected by Modi and the BJP. Instead, he said, members of the INDIA bloc are putting their own interest ahead of the general interest (of defeating the BJP).

Elections in India: Facts and Figures

Elections are organized and monitored by the three-member Election Commission of India (ECI).

Total eligible electorate: 968 million voters.

Number of seats in the lower house of Parliament: 545, two of which are reserved for members of the Anglo-Indian community. These two seats are appointed by the president.

Who wins: Party or coalition that obtains a minimum of 272 seats in a first-round majority vote, for a five-year mandate. The lower house or Lok Sabha then chooses the Prime Minister, who, in turn, appoints his cabinet.

Voting dates: Polling via electronic voting machines will take place in seven phases from April 19 to June 1 to ensure adequate security at 1.05 million polling stations. These extend from the northern Himalayas to the isolated western desert region of Rajasthan and the island territories off the country's east and west coasts. In a few cases, ECI officials will travel long distances through forested and hilly terrain to allow only one voter each to cast their ballot.

Security: More than 340,000 federal security forces, in addition to a similar number of state police forces, will be deployed during the vote.

Results: Declared on June 4.

Number of parties: India has 57 recognized political parties and 2,999 unrecognized parties, but only 10 of them occupy 86 percent of parliamentary seats. In the current parliament, it is mainly the BJP with 303 seats and the Congress Party with 52. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or Progressive Dravidian Federation, from South India, is the third largest party with 38 MPs.