Reviews | Is Indonesia Prabowo boosting his legitimacy with visits to China, Japan and Malaysia?

Courtesy visits by a defense minister will take on a different meaning, albeit slightly, when he takes over as Indonesia's president in a few months.

Although opponents of President-elect Prabowo Subiantos still dispute his electoral victory, many international leaders have already congratulated him. Chinese President Xi Jinping invited Prabowo, as president-elect, to visit Beijing; Prabowo also visited Japan and Malaysia afterwards. How important were Prabowos' visits to these countries for his legitimacy as president-elect and his future foreign policy?

There were several possible explanations. First, Prabowo, who is still President Joko Widodos' defense minister, may have wanted to show the Indonesian people that, despite the ongoing constitutional court challenge to his election victory, influential countries nevertheless recognize him as the next president .

China, Japan witness major diplomatic coup for Prabowo in Indonesia

China is a rising economic and technological superpower, Japan is a US ally that also has economic influence in Indonesia, while Malaysia is Indonesia's blood brother (the cousins) which shares common interests, including strong support for the Palestinians and their position on the European regulation on deforestation which affects palm oil exports.

Meeting with foreign leaders would allow Prabowo to show that he is already recognized by them as Indonesia's president-elect and give him more legitimacy.

Second, Prabowo probably intended to send a strong signal to domestic and international audiences that he still maintains good relations with Widodo, better known as Jokowi, and will continue his development policies. Prabowo may also have wanted to counter growing rumors that there is a divide between him and Jokowi over the latter's potential influence in the new administration.

Particularly for the Chinese public, Prabowo might have wanted to promote cordial relations with Beijing so that the two countries could continue to cooperate in trade and economic areas. Jokowi's foreign policy has been very friendly towards China. Prabowo would like Beijing to know that he will follow the same direction when he takes power in October.

Prabowo told Xi during their meeting that his policies would be based on what Jokowi had already accomplished.

I'm determined to use all of his [Jokowis] achievements as the basis of my programs. I fully support a closer and better relationship between [China] and Indonesia, Prabowo said.

Prabowo and his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Dong Jun, also discussed bilateral cooperation in officer training as well as military equipment and industry. However, no concrete details were specified.

Prabowos' trip coincided with China's growing popularity in Indonesia. The ongoing war in Gaza has sharply pitted Indonesians against U.S. foreign policy actions, with the latest ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute State of Southeast Asia 2024 survey showing a notable shift in perceptions of regional elites towards China.

When asked if ASEAN was forced to align with one of its strategic rivals, which one should it choose?, 73.2 percent of respondents in Indonesia chose China while only 26 .8 percent preferred the United States. This is a significant change from 2023, when 53.7% of Indonesians surveyed chose China and 46.3% chose to side with the United States.

Prabowo's visit to China would have sent a different signal if he had not subsequently visited Japan. Although he was not officially invited to Tokyo, Prabowo may have wanted to show Indonesia's non-aligned or free and active foreign policy by visiting Japan, an ally of the United States. He met with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara and discussed cooperation in economics, defense and security. The message of this visit was slightly more specific: the Japanese promised to provide a large patrol ship and military equipment.

Prabowo's visit to Malaysia may have been aimed at building political support among Indonesia's Muslim community, including those who did not vote for him in February. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim welcomed him on a courtesy visit; Anwar even alluded to how they were both tested by various challenges before reaching the pinnacle of political power in their respective countries. Malaysia and Indonesia share strong views in favor of the Palestinians and have called for an end to violence in Gaza.

In the future, Indonesia will strengthen cooperation with China and Japan, as well as the United States, albeit in different ways. A survey conducted from September 2022 to July 2023 by the Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency showed that while China has had more influence on the Indonesian economy, the United States has been more influential in issues of Indonesian defense and security. This is seen in Indonesia's reliance on military equipment primarily purchased from the West. The annual joint exercise between the US and Indonesian military under the command of Garuda Shield is an example of cooperation that Indonesia lacks towards China. Recently, Indonesia signed a $13.9 billion deal with the United States to acquire 24 new units of F-15EX fighter jets to modernize its aging military air fleet.

Indonesian Prabowo congratulated by Chinese Xi and American Blinken for his election victory

Prabowo may rethink how best to shape Indonesia's direction toward the two superpowers once he assumes the presidency. After his meeting with Xi, Prabowo reportedly hoped to strengthen cooperation with China to develop Indonesia's military equipment and arms industry. In his speech at CSIS Jakarta during the presidential campaign, Prabowo had said that in anticipation of growing global uncertainty, Indonesia should continue its active and independent foreign policy based on its national interest.

In summary, Prabowo's visits to these three countries were more about consolidating his domestic legitimacy as president-elect than about his foreign policy, although these trips were not without future implications.