Pro-China Muizzu wins supermajority in Maldivian Parliament – ​​Analysis – Eurasia Review

This could raise concerns in New Delhi

This is bad news for India from the Maldives. Maldivian voters gave President Mohamed Muizzu's alliance, made up mainly of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and the People's National Congress (PNC), a “super majority” in the April 21 legislative elections.

The president can now pursue his pro-China policies unhindered by a parliament dominated by the pro-Indian Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP).

According to interim results, the PPM/PNC alliance won 70 seats in the Majlis (as the Maldivian parliament is called), or 93 seats.

With three-quarters of the entire Parliament in his hands, the President gains the power to amend the constitution. It can also develop and implement policies without being hamstrung by a hostile parliament.

The other coalition parties, such as the Maldives National Party (MNP) and the Maldives Development Alliance (MDA), also won seats, with the MNP winning one and the MDA winning two.

The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), led by former President Ibrahim Solih, which won 65 seats in the previous parliament, won only 15 this time. And the Democrats, led by former president and Speaker of Parliament Mohamed Nasheed and the Adhaalath party, failed to win any seats.

The Popular National Front (PNF), launched by former President Abdulla Yameen, also failed, although it contested 35 seats.

President Muizzu was elected president in October 2023 and took office in November. But he was paralyzed by the fact that the Majlis, or parliament, was in the hands of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), an opposition party led by former President Ibrahim Solih. It was difficult for him to pass money bills.

He was heavily criticized by the pro-India MDP due to his anti-India and pro-China policies. At the same time, he received criticism from former President Yameen who wanted him to implement the 'India Out' policy in its entirety and not in bits and pieces.

India Out Campaign

Yameen said he would continue to pressure Muizzu to move forward with the India Out project, the Republic of Maldives website reported.

The former president told the press after his release from prison that he would continue his “India Out” campaign. While the Maldivian government has taken steps to reduce India's military footprint, confirming the return of personnel associated with the operation of military helicopters and a Dornier aircraft, Yameen questioned the transparency and comprehensiveness of these efforts. He points out that even though personnel have been replaced, the planes are still operational under the control of Indian civilians.

Yameen's tenure as president from 2013 to 2018 was marked by strained relations with India, due in part to his administration's demand to withdraw Indian troops, a request that went unheeded. This historical tension provides the backdrop for his current criticism of the current administration's handling of the foreign military presence, which he and other members of the opposition consider unconstitutional.

By reinvigorating the “India Out” campaign, Yameen is not only challenging the policies of the current government, but is also positioning herself as a defender of Maldivian sovereignty against perceived external encroachments. The move could potentially intensify domestic political conflicts and complicate Maldives' external relations, particularly with India, the Republic of Maldives said.

Previous confusion resolved

There was a lot of confusion in Maldives politics in the run-up to the April 21 elections. All competing parties were either divided or divided into factions. There were no imposing leaders who could establish attractive programs and influence voters to support them. There were no overarching issues that excited the imagination of the people and sparked political action. Muizzu was seen as a confused man and Solih as ineffective. Yameen was in prison for corruption. Nasheed was overseas at an international climate change organization.

Observers said there was boredom among voters, a palpable feeling of weariness, because successive governments have failed to offer the population a stable, thoughtful and realistic policy.

President Muizzu, who had won convincingly on a platform promising to throw off the yoke of Indian rule and turn instead to China, was unable to translate his ideas into action.

After making scathing statements against India, Muizzu had to swallow his words, seek Indian economic cooperation and woo Indian tourists, who were boycotting the Maldives due to his pro-China bias and vituperative comments about India .

There is no doubt that the Maldivians did not like the Indian military presence (or for that matter any foreign military presence) among them. They supported Muizzu's call for the withdrawal of the Indian army. But they also did not approve of his call for total alienation from India and partition entirely with China. Maldivians have close historical and interpersonal ties with India, a type of relationship they do not have with China, although they admire the Chinese work ethic.

Political divisions

Muizzu's party, the People's National Congress (PNC), is a splinter group from the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) led by former President Abdulla Yameen. Nevertheless, the PNC and the PPM have formed an alliance to fight the presidential and parliamentary elections of October 2023.

However, after Muizzu won the presidential election, PPM leader Abdulla Yameen broke away from Muizzu and formed his own party called the People's National Front (PNF).

Within his own PNC, Muizzu formed his own clique. He presented candidates against the official PNC candidates in the legislative elections! These were identified as “government candidates”. The “government candidates” hoped to obtain votes under the pretext that they were the “men chosen by the president”.

The Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) also saw a split, with one group led by former President Ibrahim Solih and the other led by former Speaker of Parliament and former President Mohamed Nasheed. Nasheed formed his own party called the “Democrats.”

Nasheed's grievance against Solih was that the latter had failed to keep his promise to change the presidential system to a parliamentary system and to go after Islamic radicals. There was even a rumor that Solih had not done enough to punish the radical Islamists who attempted to assassinate Nasheed.

With all parties divided, no party had a decisive advantage over the others. A hung parliament was envisaged.

Although Muizzu began his term as president as an anti-India leader, calling for the withdrawal of Indian troops providing air medical evacuation service with Indian planes, he eventually accepted the Indian suggestion that Indian civilians would provide the service. After some of his ministers made derogatory remarks about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Indian tourists boycotted the Maldives, Muizzu stepped down and said he would organize road shows to India to attract Indian tourists.

Muizzu also asked India to continue its development plans in the Maldives, although he had earlier said he would review all “hundred” agreements with India. The only decisive action he took was the cancellation of an agreement to carry out a hydrographic survey.

India responded favorably by reserving INR 770 crore ($92 million) for the Maldives in the 2024-25 budget. On April 5, India permitted the export of certain quantities of essential commodities for the year 2024-25 on the request of the Maldives government. The Indian government announced that these items could be exported from the designated ports of Mundra, Tuticorin, Nhava Sheva and the Inland Container Depot at Tughlakabad.

China is also executing massive infrastructure projects in the Maldives costing millions of dollars. Muizzu avoided visiting India and went to China instead. He signed 20 MoUs there, including one on “strategic partnership” for a limited period, raising concerns in India.

Meanwhile, in a report dated October 2023, the World Bank had warned that further complicity with China could cause problems for the Maldives since the $1.37 billion it already owed to Beijing represented 20%. of their total public debt.

China is the Maldives' largest bilateral creditor, ahead of Saudi Arabia and India, to which it owes $124 million and $123 million respectively, the Bank said.

Therefore, the Sino-Indian competition for the hand of the Maldivians is seriously underway and is likely to continue. However, much depends on how President Muizzu manages the two countries. Now that he has full control of Parliament, he will have complete freedom to make decisions and implement them as he sees fit.