Latest Marquette Poll Shows Harris, Trump Tied in Wisconsin

Despite a new presidential candidate, the latest poll from Marquette University Law School shows the swing state of Wisconsin is on familiar ground, with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris tied.

Among registered voters, the latest Marquette poll shows Harris with 49 percent of the vote, to Trump’s 50 percent. Among likely voters, the poll is reversed, with Harris leading Trump, 50 percent to 49 percent.

It's Marquette's first investigation since June, and in that month and a half, the political world has changed.

Stay informed about the latest news

Subscribe to WPR's e-newsletter.

Trump survived an assassination attempt and President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, endorsing Harris. Republicans held their national convention, with Trump selecting Ohio U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate. Harris, who became the Democratic nominee in a virtual roll call, picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate on Monday.

The latest Marquette poll was conducted among 877 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. It was conducted from July 24 to Aug. 1, so it did not measure voter attitudes since Walz was added to the Democratic ticket.

But this new wave of events followed, including the shift from Biden to Harris at the top of the ticket, which gave Democrats a boost in other polls. In the June Marquette poll, Biden and Trump were tied. The fact that Harris is getting similar numbers in the polls just two weeks into her campaign suggests that voters have quickly adjusted to this shift.

This idea is confirmed by the number of Wisconsin voters who believed Biden was right to drop out of the race about three weeks ago (79%). That includes the vast majority of Democrats, 91%.

Had Biden remained a candidate, the poll suggests Trump would have taken the lead, 47 to 42.

“It’s a dramatic increase,” said Charles Franklin, who runs the poll, of how quickly Harris has closed the gap left by Biden. “Democrats had been unenthusiastic about Biden all year. After the debate, that lack of enthusiasm, I think, turned into a near depression, and when he made that decision, it opened the door to a new campaign.”

The results released Wednesday will be closely watched in Wisconsin, where four of the last six presidential races have been decided by less than a percentage point.

Third-party and independent candidates lose vote share

The poll results also came a day after four independent candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., filed to run on the November ballot. If the results are final, Wisconsinites could see as many as nine presidential candidates on their ballots, including candidates from the Green, Libertarian and Constitutional parties.

The poll asked voters about the seven major potential candidates, including independents Kennedy and Cornel West, Jill Stein of the Green Party, Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver and Randall Terry of the Constitution Party.

In such a contest between multiple candidates, Harris comes out on top with 45 percent of the vote of registered voters, and Trump gets 43 percent. Kennedy would get 8 percent, and Stein and Oliver about 1 percent. West and Terry would get less than 0.5 percent.

Kennedy's share of voters remained the same as in June, but other third-party and independent candidates saw their shares of voters decline.

Wisconsin third-party and independent candidates received 5.5% of the vote in 2016, and just 1.5% overall in 2020. Both races were decided by less than a percentage point, so these candidates have a chance to have a significant impact on major-party candidates.

Excitement builds after Harris enters the race

Democratic activists have reported a surge of energy in Harris' campaign after she received Biden's endorsement last month. Wednesday's poll numbers also show voter enthusiasm has increased significantly.

“There was a very rapid embrace of Harris, which I think is interesting,” Franklin said. “The party rallied around her very quickly, which boosted people’s perception of her in terms of popularity. It changed the Democrats’ view of how the campaign was going, and it sort of overshadowed or overshadowed the Republican convention, which is normally where you get a boost at the convention.”

Harris gained among least enthusiastic, moderately and somewhat enthusiastic voters, while Trump led among most enthusiastic voters.

Sixty-one percent of voters said they were eager to vote, up from 46 percent in July. That number corresponds not only with the Democratic shift, but also with the assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention and the announcement of Vance as Trump’s running mate.

And there has been a “slight decrease in double haters,” or voters who dislike both candidates, according to Franklin, from 17% in June to 11% in July.

Wisconsin U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin speaks during a celebration marking the return of Wisconsin Point Cemeteries to the Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewas on Aug. 18, 2022. Danielle Kaeding/WPR Baldwin continues to lead Hovde in a closely watched U.S. Senate race

Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads her most likely Republican opponent, businessman Eric Hovde, 53 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. That’s a slight increase from June, when Baldwin led 52 percent to 47 percent among registered and likely voters.

Baldwin's Senate seat is one of several seats Democrats are defending to maintain their advantage in that chamber. His approval rating is 44 percent, as is his underdog rating. Hovde's approval rating is 24 percent, and his underdog rating is 37 percent.

The percentage of voters who say they don’t know enough to form an opinion about Hovde has declined significantly over the course of his campaign, from 82% in January to 38% in polls this month. During that period, his approval rating has increased more than his approval rating.

According to Franklin, Gov. Tony Evers is Wisconsin's most popular elected official. His approval rating is 51 percent and his disapproval rating is 44 percent. That number has remained steady since June.

Wisconsin Public Radio, Copyright 2024, University System of Wisconsin Board of Regents and Wisconsin Educational Communications Council.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: cgurgu@internetmarketingcompany.BizWebsite: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos