Politics
EDITORIAL: Restoring the balance between the two sides of the strait
In a recent interview with Center for Strategic and International Studies researchers Jude Blanchette and Mike Green on President William Lai's strategy for China, Financial Times Taiwan correspondent Kathrin Hille said that William Lai believes the best way to deal with Beijing is to be clear in his rhetoric. Lai probably believes that China would ease up on some of its pressure if it truly understood that the Taiwanese do not want to be ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
He believes that if he states the truth and his position, it will give him a good basis on which to move forward, Hille told Lais's advisers.
Whether this is really what Lai thinks about China is worrying, as it suggests a slightly naïve approach to the country's handling of international relations, demonstrating a lack of awareness of how Beijing perceives international politics.
The CCP's foreign policy research community views international relations fundamentally through a realist lens, where the more power a nation acquires relative to other nations, the more say and influence it should and would want to have.
This is the theory behind Beijing's strengthening nuclear program, said Tong Zhao (), a senior fellow at the Carnegie China Nuclear Policy program, in a recent Foreign Affairs essay.
Chinese leaders appear to have adopted the untested belief that nuclear weapons give them greater geopolitical power, Zhao said.
This is also how Beijing's foreign policy community views what it calls the Taiwan question, and reading what these practitioners say can provide insight into how Chinese leaders view these issues.
Although Chinese President Xi Jinping () has centralized foreign policy decision-making, Chinese leaders still seek a range of expertise from the country's broader strategic community, including academics, policy experts and former officials to inform decision-making, London-based researcher Yu Jie () said in a recent report for Chatham House on how Beijing views its rivalry with the United States.
Chinese scholars do not view Xi Jinping, Taiwan policy, or even the United States as the root cause of the rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait. Instead, they believe that the root cause is China's rise in power relative to the United States and Taiwan.
The conflict in the Taiwan Strait has become unbalanced and the risk of conflict is increasing [due to] China's rapid progress in military modernization has been noted, Zuo Xiying (), a scholar at Renmin University of China, said in 2021.
They also believe that Xi Jinping's increased pressure on Taiwan is simply China's responsibility as a great power to assert its national interests when material factors permit, and that the natural logic of international politics takes its course.
The escalation of the situation is inevitable, Zuo said.
Many Taiwanese politicians believe that Beijing can be managed through words and meetings. Supporters of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) continue to argue that relations with the CCP should be 70 percent political and 30 percent military. Not only does this strategy become riskier as Beijing’s power grows, it also relies on a misreading of how the CCP views international relations and power.
To restore balance and bring stability to the Taiwan Strait, Taiwanese leaders must talk less and act more. This can be done by increasing defense spending, acquiring more asymmetric weapons to reduce Beijing’s reach, and implementing societal initiatives to strengthen the country’s resilience.
Diplomatic overtures or linguistic formulations will not address the root cause of the CCP's behavior, namely the belief within the Chinese strategic community and political leadership that the material balance of power across the Taiwan Strait has tilted in its favor.
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