PM Modi attempts delicate balancing act in kyiv, under watchful eye of US and Russia

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media after talks in Warsaw, August 22, 2024. Modi's visit to Ukraine will be judged on optics and tangible results in supporting peace and reconstruction efforts. | Photo credit: AP

Balancing India's position on the Russia-Ukraine war will be at the top of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's agenda when he arrives by train in Kiev on Friday (August 23, 2024) morning, for India's first high-level visit since the war broke out in 2022. While the trip, six weeks after his visit to Moscow and meeting with President Vladimir Putin, is part of that process, the outcome of the visit will also be carefully weighed, experts say, given Ukraine's disappointments with India's position in the past.

In particular, India’s position on the war in Ukraine, Mr. Modi’s response to Ukraine’s demands for reconstruction and equipment supplies, and India’s possible role in ending the conflict and starting a peace process will be closely watched both in Moscow and Washington. Prime Minister Modi is one of the few leaders who personally visited Kiev and Moscow during the war (with the exception of the leaders of Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia, Guinea-Bissau, and Hungary).

The visit comes at a time when the Swiss peace summit has failed to have a decisive impact on the war, European nations are increasingly concerned about the rising costs associated with war and the US is preoccupied with its domestic politics, said Happymon Jacob, a professor at JNU and director of the Council for Strategic and Defence Research. This context offers an opportunity, if the Indian establishment chooses to pursue it, to initiate a new global debate on how to bring warring parties to the negotiating table. India could play a small but significant role in this process, he added.

Mr Modi’s visit to Ukraine, which is expected to last around 6-8 hours in the war-torn capital of Kiev, will be significant. While in Moscow, Mr Modi visited the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and did not visit any memorials to Russian soldiers from the war, this may be more difficult in kyiv, given the high casualties and toll of the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was particularly critical of Prime Minister Modi’s reception of Mr Putin in July, calling it a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts because it came on the same day as the bombing of a children’s hospital in kyiv, and it remains to be seen whether Prime Minister Modi will visit any of the bombed sites or meet the wounded in hospital – as most other leaders visiting Ukraine have done in the past two years.

India's abstention from all UN resolutions criticizing Russia's actions since 2022, and its decision to disassociate itself from the outcome document of the Swiss peace conference in June, have also been met with some consternation in kyiv, given that Prime Minister Modi had met President Zelenskyy just before the conference.

While the visit may alleviate some of the negativity in current India-Ukraine relations, it is unlikely to lead to direct Indian mediation in the Russia-Ukraine war or increase Ukraine's importance in India's strategic calculus at Russia's expense, Jacob said.

According to Manav Sachdeva, Ukraine's goodwill ambassador appointed by President Zelenskyy to promote the Grain from Ukraine initiative after Russia's blockade of wheat exports, India could still seize the strategic opportunity to ensure that Russia attends the upcoming peace summit scheduled for November, and offer to mediate or promote dialogue.

India can play a vital role in facilitating peace, thereby strengthening its global influence and commitment to a stable international order, M. Sachdeva, a former United Nations official who served in several conflict zones and is now based in Delhi, told The Hindu.

He said India's willingness to participate in Ukraine's reconstruction will be key to future cooperation, especially in the areas of infrastructure, technology and healthcare. So far, despite supplying tents and medicines to Ukraine, New Delhi has not yet approved exports of items such as telecommunication towers, medical equipment and construction and digging machinery, which were requested, including during Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's visit to Delhi in March this year.

There is no denying that India has not yet responded to Ukraine's previous requests for assistance. However, the post-war reconstruction period provides a valuable opportunity for India to provide substantial support, Sachdeva said.

The trickiest part of Mr Modi's agenda, however, will be ensuring that this support satisfies his hosts in kyiv, while maintaining India's traditional and much more substantial ties with Russia.