Here's Why Experts Say China's New Fentanyl Rules Won't Make Much DifferenceExBulletin

U.S. President Joe Biden (R) and Chinese President Xi Jinping walk together after a meeting in California last November. White House officials say the meeting led to better cooperation on fentanyl interdiction, but some experts are skeptical.

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Chinese officials say that new regulations will come into force On September 1, stricter controls were enacted on so-called “precursor” chemicals used to produce street-level fentanyl, a powerful opioid that kills tens of thousands of people in the United States each year.

Chemical factories in China have become major suppliers to Mexican drug cartels and other criminal gangs producing synthetic drugs, including fentanyl and methamphetamine, experts say.

The Biden administration has described the new Chinese rules — tightening government oversight over seven chemicals, including three compounds used to make illicit fentanyl — as a “a valuable step forward” in the fight to reduce overdose deaths in the United States.

“We will seek to make further progress in combating drug trafficking and the flow of illicit synthetic drugs into the United States,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said at a news conference in Beijing on Thursday.

In a statement earlier this monthThe White House described the latest Chinese regulations as part of a trend toward better cooperation on narcotics that began last November when President Joe Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“This marks the third important event [regulatory] “The actions the PRC has taken since President Biden met with President Xi and resumed bilateral counternarcotics cooperation,” National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said.

Ahead of the resumption of negotiations on the fight against narcotics in 2023, China suspends all drug cooperation with the United States due to diplomatic tensions over Taiwan and human rights issues.

Dr. Rahul Gupta, the White House's top drug enforcement official, also welcomed China's decision to re-engage in the fight against drug trafficking, noting in an August 6 statement that “dozens of deadly substances have now been distributed.” [regulated] by the PRC.

But drug policy experts interviewed by NPR expressed skepticism about China's new fentanyl rules, questioning whether they will be backed by meaningful enforcement.

Stricter regulation on paper. What about its application?

John Coyne, an expert on criminal drug markets at the Australia Strategic Policy Institute, published an essay Last week, they criticized China's new regulations on fentanyl precursors, describing them as “a mere public relations stunt.”

According to Coyne, a He added that a wide range of chemicals that can be used in illicit drug manufacturing remain unregulated in China. He also said there is evidence that Chinese authorities are complicit in the fentanyl trade.

“There are links between some of these [chemical] “Chinese companies and government officials are indeed advertising these links online,” Coyne told NPR. He's not alone in expressing doubt.

Last April, investigators from a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee released evidence that Chinese government agencies are actually subsidizing the export of fentanyl precursors, accusations that Chinese officials deny.

Speaking to NPR this week, a spokesperson for the Republican majority team that conducted the investigation Fentanyl investigation He said it was worrying that Chinese subsidies to chemical companies exporting fentanyl-related chemicals remained in place.

They also said their investigators had found no new evidence that China was considering going after companies that feed the criminal fentanyl supply chain. Chinese officials did not respond to an email seeking comment.

Speaking behind closed doors because of the sensitivity of the negotiations with China, a senior Biden administration official told NPR that the new regulations on fentanyl chemicals are important because they “give us a way to push them to do more.”

“We obviously think the PRC can do a lot more,” the official said. “No single measure will solve this problem, it's a huge problem.”

A photo of Makayla Cox, who died of a fentanyl overdose at age 16, is displayed among other portraits on the “Faces of Fentanyl” wall, which features photos of Americans who have died of fentanyl overdoses, at the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) headquarters in Arlington, Virginia, on July 13, 2022. – The opioid crisis in the United States has reached catastrophic proportions, with more than 80,000 people dying from opioid overdoses in 2023.

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Put the toothpaste back in the tube

Even if Chinese authorities take steps to implement regulations aimed at curbing fentanyl production, many experts believe it may be impossible to reduce the supply of the precursor chemical.

“It's worth a try [but] “I think the most likely outcome is that there will be no lasting interference with the ability to produce fentanyl,” said Jonathan Caulkins, an expert on the fentanyl crisis at Carnegie Mellon University.

Caulkins said the precursor chemicals for fentanyl are relatively easy to produce and widely available. Controlling every compound that can produce a version of fentanyl is like “putting toothpaste back in the tube,” he said.

Greg Midgette, a drug markets expert at the University of Maryland, agrees. He says identifying and controlling the sources of fentanyl would be a daunting challenge, even for China's powerful bureaucracy.

“These things are very difficult to trace,” he said. “We would probably see an adaptation either in China or in another state where precursors are not as well regulated.”

Still, experts told NPR that it makes sense for the United States to keep up pressure on criminal drug cartels, their supply chains and the countries like China and Mexico where they operate. Such measures can help reduce corruption and criminal activity and bring some measure of justice, they said.

Administration officials, meanwhile, have said it is necessary to convince China to resume cooperation on narcotics. and convincing Beijing to tighten regulations is part of a broader campaign against fentanyl.

Other elements of this effort include targeting and Top Mexican drug cartel leaders arrestedSome public health experts also believe that the expansion of health and drug programs has ultimately slowed fentanyl-related deaths.