China's Growing Role in the Middle East – Analysis – Eurasia Review

ByMauricio D. Aceves

There has been a long debate regarding the power vacuum in the Middle East following the waning presence of the United States. In this context, regional actors have increased their influence on the specific issue of stability. It is therefore crucial that all countries diversify their ties as they seek a new balance, beyond their familiar issues of economic interest and energy security.

In this scenario, China offers an alternative, by strengthening its initial strategic engagement around investments, bilateral and multilateral cooperation and geopolitical calibrations, to smoothly adapt to a new multipolar order. Echoes of this strategy are also being heard in other latitudes. At the same time, China has also increased its presence in Latin America, mainly through investments in communications, technology and connectivity infrastructure.

China's role in the Middle East can be categorized into a troika of areas whose economic and geopolitical scope includes the supply chain, financial systems, investments, transfers of technology and technical knowledge, trade and energy security. The second refers to bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, including convergence within organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), BRICS, and the many manifestations of diplomacy, from cultural to military. The third reflects the political approach with non-state actors and open communication channels across the region's political labyrinth. China does not aim to control regional dynamics or guarantee security. China's policy is to master economic dialogue and the use of incentives while avoiding any direct involvement in conflicts and the creation of adversaries. Economic development is the sword and pragmatism is the way forward.

The Middle East has historically stood at a geopolitical crossroads, even in China's view. The Persian Gulf supplies China with more than a third of the oil it imports;[1]Qatar is the main source of gas imported from China, and Turkmenistan the second.[2] Today, China is the main trading partner of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.[3]The region has become a key destination for Chinese exports and services related to infrastructure, communications and information technology. More than 60% of maritime trade between Europe and China[4]crosses the many seas of the region: the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and Oman, the straits of Bab al-Mandeb and Hormuz.

Beijing has invested in Oman's Duqm port and built oil pipelines to Fujairah port and facilities at Khalifa port in the United Arab Emirates. It has stakes in at least 20 port projects in the Middle East and North Africa. Bahrain, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Yemen remain potential sites for further Chinese port development. This growing web of possibilities and realities represents the first step in China's growing presence in the Middle East supply chain and reflects global geopolitical priorities.

However, conflicts compromise transit through these chokepoints between the Indo-Pacific and Mediterranean waters. The reactivity of the Houthis in the Gulf of Aden, the instability in the Horn of Africa or the chapter of the stranded Evergreencontainer ships in the Suez Canal, show how vulnerable these areas are.

Avoiding exposure has been China's central policy, but in the external domain China has certainly been active and visible. China's military base in Djibouti, at the entrance to the Red Sea, and the naval presence near Hormuz, are ostensibly aimed at deterring piracy and making it easier to participate in joint military exercises. So far, these maps have not been used to interfere in ongoing conflicts, but only to protect Chinese assets and guard trade routes. Military engagement is Beijing's last option when threats to foreign national interests are imminent. China also does not view non-state military actors or ongoing regional conflicts as direct threats. This fact has conditioned its approach of relying on diplomacy rather than military engagement.

But this strategy has limits. Conflict escalation and propagation can involve different approaches. Provide technologies and components for dual use, civil and military, or support the development of the military industry[5][6]were modest but significant steps toward military involvement through commercial means.

The SCO, BRICS, the Digital Silk Road and the Global Security Initiative show that the Chinese presence deep in the arteries of the Middle East has entered a new stage of engagement. Comprehensive strategic partnerships with Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates demonstrate the precise calibration of diplomacy, overcoming political differences. Even considering long-standing support for Palestine and condemnations of Israel's military actions in Palestine and Lebanon, China has developed economic ties with Israel and simultaneously strengthened its relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. China is the main trading partner of Iran and Israel.[7]The 25-year cooperation agreement between China and Iran, signed in 2021, and the mediating role played by Beijing in the joint trilateral declaration with Iran and Saudi Arabia give China legitimacy and reduce the perception of China as a rival.

Earlier this year, Chinese envoys met with Hamas political leaders in Doha; At the same time, China participated in talks with senior Israeli diplomats and the Palestinian Authority, and later in July, China held a summit with representatives of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority in Beijing. These interactions aim to maintain communication with all actors, even when political and war conditions make mediation efforts unviable. However, diplomatic inertia on the Middle East seems to be taking root, particularly with the devastating situation in Palestine and the multiple fronts opened by this Pandora's box. Other actions could be analyzed if the conflict spreads and harms global stability.

China's ties with the Middle East are sinking into uncharted seas. China's weight has increased in the Middle East. Nowadays, it is easy to find banks flying the Chinese flag in major regional cities. Chinese embassies in Riyadh, Cairo and Tehran are more influential than ever. China's ability to understand the motivations of its partners has resulted in a foreign policy that is a mix of defined incentives and consequences; she is aware of the importance of establishing a transparent set of geopolitical priorities within a long-term framework. A new version of the Great Game[8]began in the Middle East, and its domestic powers play a leading role, but China will always be that player on the chessboard with more pieces and moves in hand than ever.

• About the author: Mauricio D. Aceves is an advisor on security and border issues at STRATOP Risk Consulting, a member of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations, and an analyst on contemporary issues in the Middle East and Central Asia.
• Source: This article was written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations.

References

[1]Keith Bradsher, China's economic challenge in the Middle East: its thirst for oil, The New York Times, Beijing, China, 2023.https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/11/business/china-oil-saudi-arabia-iran.html

[2]Chas W. Freeman, The Middle East and China, The Middle East Policy Council, Washington, DC, United States. https://mepc.org/speeches/middle-east-and-china/

[3]State Council, People's Republic of China, Chinese trade volumes soar with Middle East, Africa, State Council, People's Republic of China, Beijing, China, 2023.https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202307/17/content_WS64b49b48c6d0868f4e8ddd72.html

[4]Amr Salah MohamedChina's growing maritime presence in Egyptian ports and the Suez Canal, Middle East Institute, Washington, DC, USA, 2023. https://www.mei.edu/publications/chinas-growing-maritime-presence- egypts-ports-and-suez-canal

[5]Hiddai Segev and Ofek Riemer, Not a flood but a growing tide: Chinese arms sales in the Middle East, INSS, 2023.https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Hiddai.pdf

[6]Dan Darling, Derek Bisaccio and Aja Melville, China Seizes Middle East Arms Export Opportunity, Defense and Security Monitor, Insights from Forecast International, 2023.https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2023/06/01/china-seizes-arms-exporting-opportunity-in-the-middle-east/

[7]Jonathan Fulton and Michael Schuman, Chinese policy in the Middle East moves from cover to coverage, Atlantic Council, 2024.https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-owned-research-reports/report/chinas-middle-east-policy-shift-from-hedging-to-wedging/

[8]Peter Hopkirk, The Great Game: The Struggle for Empire in Central Asia, Kodansha America, Inc, 1994.https://www.amazon.com/Great-Game-Struggle-Central-Kodansha/dp/1568360223