The Middle East is counting on Saudi Arabia to rein in Donald Trump

Arab states are counting on Saudi Arabia to use its relationship with Donald Trump and its political clout in the region to control the president-elect's Middle East policies, fearing he is pursuing a decidedly pro-Israeli agenda.

After Trump appointed a number of ardently pro-Israeli candidates and Iran supporters to key positions, Arab officials fear his new administration will approve any move by Israel to annex the occupied West Bank, occupy Gaza or intensify tensions with Tehran.

But they hope Riyadh can temper the new administration's policies in the region by leveraging Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's relationship with Trump, the president-elect's appetite for financial deals and his expected desire to strike a major agreement that would lead Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize. reports.

The key player in the region is Saudi Arabia because of its known relations with it, so it will be the fulcrum of any regional action the United States may decide to take, an Arab diplomat said.

Another Arab official said Prince Mohammed would play a key role in influencing Trump's policy to end Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza and, more broadly, on Palestinian issues, using the potential of normalization with Israel as a lever.

Saudi Arabia could strongly influence how Trump deals with Gaza and Palestine, the official said. Many countries in the region are worried about what happens next.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has recalibrated Saudi Arabia's regional policy since Joe Biden took office SPA/AFP/Getty Images

During Trump's first term, Saudi Arabia adopted his transactional style and maximum pressure campaign against regional rival Iran. Trump stood by Prince Mohammed when other Western leaders gave cold shoulder to the kingdom's de facto leader after Saudi agents murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

Trump also boasted that he would broker the ultimate deal to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But those plans, overseen by his son-in-law Jared Kushner, failed, with the Palestinians and Arab states viewing the proposals as far too biased. in favor of Israel. Trump also cut aid to the Palestinians, closed their diplomatic mission in Washington, moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, whose status is disputed, and recognized Israel's claim to sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights. agreements, in which the United Arab Emirates and three other Arab states normalized relations with Israel.

Trump told al-Arabiya, a Saudi television channel, last month that relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia during his presidency were excellent, with capital letters SUPER.

“So much respect for the king, so much respect for Mohammed who did so well, he is truly a visionary,” he said.

After US President Joe Biden took office, Riyadh maintained ties with Trump, with its Public Investment Fund, the sovereign wealth fund chaired by Prince Mohammed, investing $2 billion in a private equity fund created by Kushner.

PIF Governor Yasir al-Rumayyan shared front-row seats with Trump at a UFC fight in New York over the weekend. The Trumps courses have also hosted events organized by LIV Golf, one of the PIF's most high-profile sporting enterprises.

But Prince Mohammed has recalibrated Saudi Arabia's regional policy since Biden took office. Riyadh restored diplomatic relations with Iran in 2023 as part of a policy of detente it has pursued since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 triggered a wave of conflicts in the region.

While the Biden administration's plan to normalize relations with Israel under a three-way deal that would include a Saudi-US defense treaty has been upended by the war, the United States still views the kingdom as essential to efforts aimed at any regional settlement of the crisis.

Riyadh, however, toughened its criticism of the far-right government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the Palestinian death toll rose.

In October, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said normalization with Israel was not an option until there was a resolution on the creation of a Palestinian state. Hamad I Mohammed/Reuters

In October, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said normalization with Israel was not an option until there was a resolution on the creation of a Palestinian state.

And Prince Mohammed took advantage of an Arab and Islamic summit in Riyadh last week to accuse Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, while condemning its war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and its strikes against Iran.

Diplomats and analysts interpreted his speech as a message to Washington and Netanyahu that the Muslim world was united in its condemnation of Israeli military offensives and in its support for the creation of a Palestinian state. On Tuesday, Riyadh denounced what it called extremist Israeli statements regarding the imposition of sovereignty over the West Bank.

During his campaign, Trump promised to bring peace to the Middle East and end the war. But many of his candidates are ardently pro-Israel, including Mike Huckabee, his choice for ambassador to Israel, and Steven Witkoff, a real estate mogul whom he named envoy to the Middle East.

Trump, however, said he wants to expand the Abraham Accords, telling al-Arabiya that the framework is there, it just needs to be reinserted and it will happen very quickly.

If I win, that will be a top priority…just bringing peace to everyone in the Middle East, Trump said. It will happen.

A billboard in Tel Aviv praises Trump after his triumph in the US presidential election Amir Levy/Getty Images

Saudi Arabia would be important in unlocking any expansion of the Abraham Accords, but Arab officials believe Trump will only succeed by pressuring Netanyahu to make concessions to the Palestinians on the creation of a Palestinian state, which the Israeli Prime Minister vehemently rejects.

A second Arab diplomat said this meant Trump currently had no more need for another player in the Middle East than Saudi Arabia.

Trump is someone who likes to be presented with ready-made deals that he can take credit for, the diplomat said. So if MBS offers him a deal…it's a possibility, but it might be the only possibility.

Arab officials also hope it will be harder for Trump to sideline the Palestinians, as the level of outrage over the devastation in Gaza has put their cause back at the top of the regional agenda. Leaders are concerned about the conflict radicalizing segments of their own population, particularly among young people, Prince Mohammed's main constituency.

Trump will have to end the war in Gaza and to do so he will have to tackle the aftermath, the top Arab diplomat said. He will have to concentrate on the Palestinian aspect, otherwise the regional element will not work. Saudi Arabia has stated bluntly that unless there is a Palestinian state, normalization is not an option.

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This gave Prince Mohammed the opportunity to project himself and his kingdom as a regional leader. But this role has pitfalls given Trump's unpredictability and Netanyahu's refusal to accept any concessions to the Palestinians.

The Saudis maneuvered well by presenting themselves not as the leader, but as the architect of an Arab and Muslim consensus, and in doing so they distributed responsibilities, said Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies . The question is: can it handle the heat and handle the exposure? Can he cope with potential failure?

The second Arab diplomat said Prince Mohammed had found the password to play a leadership role in the Middle East.

The only issue that unites the Arab world is the Palestinian question, the diplomat said. The question is to what extent Saudi Arabia can invest in this project…and to what extent Netanyahu will have the capacity to torpedo it.

Additional reporting by Ahmed Al Omran in Riyadh

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