Donald Trump is already reshaping the outlook for Ukraine and the Palestinians

In an increasingly uncertain world, one thing we can say with some confidence is that right now, in world affairs, all roads lead to Donald Trump. Trump's re-election as US president, although widely expected (especially by bookmakers), has set off a chain reaction of sorts.

Whether it is his record during his first term from 2017 to 2021, the comments he made during the electoral campaign, the comments he has made since the election, the choices of his cabinet or the comments on his cabinet choices, the prospect that Trump assumes arguably the most powerful office in world politics will in just a few weeks make its own climate across the world.

In Ukraine, where the war has just passed its thousandth day and Russia continues to advance slowly but surely, the prospect of a ceasefire negotiated next year by the Trump administration, followed by negotiations over the of which Vladimir Putin would hold a large part of the cards. , seems to be the new reality.

The idea, cherished by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, that Ukrainian defenders would be able to push Russian troops beyond the borders established at the end of the Cold War in 1991, an idea he wholeheartedly supported by its Western allies, now appears. be a non-starter. Everything indicates that this is a frozen conflict, with each side holding the territory it currently occupies (although one can imagine that Ukraine will have more difficulty retaining the approximately 600 square kilometers of Russian soil which it currently controls in the Kursk region).

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But of course, there was already a frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine after Russian incursions in 2014. And as Stefan Wolff, an international security expert at the University of Birmingham, points out, the Minsk agreements on Ukraine in September 2014 and February 2015, which were supposed to maintain, at least, a certain degree of security and end the fighting in the region, were not worth the paper they were written on.

There is very little chance that Trump will allow US troops to be sent to Ukraine as peacekeepers or combatants. So, Wolff supposes, it will be up to Europe to step up its efforts. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said this before the US election and Margus Tsahkna, Estonia's foreign minister, explicitly said this week that Europe must be ready to support a peace deal.

Europe must ensure that it is closely involved in any peace negotiations, Wolff concludes: In negotiations involving only Trump, Putin and Zelensky, Ukraine would be the weakest link and European interests would likely be completely ignored. After 1,000 days of the most devastating military confrontation on the European continent since World War II, it is time to accept that nothing in Europe can exist without Europe.

Read more: Ukraine: after 1,000 days of war, Europe must prepare for a peace deal negotiated by Trump by asserting its own interests

As might be expected, Trump's victory also focused the mind of the man currently sitting behind the Resolute desk. And on the 998th day of the conflict, Joe Biden gave Zelensky the green light to use long-range Atacms (army tactical missile systems) supplied by the United States against targets in Russia, which the Ukrainian president has been asking for almost all the time. of the war.

Ukraine immediately took Biden at his word, launching eight missiles at targets in Bryansk, a Russian region bordering Ukraine. The following day, the British government officially authorized Ukraine to use its long-range Storm Shadow missiles in a similar manner, and Ukraine used them to attack targets in the Kursk region.

Many commentators believe that one of the epitaphs of Biden's handling of the Ukraine war will be too little, too late. This week, he also authorized Ukraine to deploy antipersonnel mines (APL), the type rejected by 164 countries signatory to the Ottawa convention banning this type of munitions. Which, of course, means he could have another epitaph as an American leader willing to use weapons almost universally condemned as a horrible scourge already contaminating more than 70 countries.

It should be noted, however, that neither the United States nor Russia are signatories to the convention. Ukraine is, but that hasn't stopped it from becoming one of the most mine-contaminated countries in the world.

The reason Ukraine is so keen to get its hands on these PLAs, writes military technology expert David Galbreath of the University of Bath, is that it needs to find a way to block Russian infantry while she continues to move forward.

Galbreath describes how the success of Ukrainian drones in targeting Russian armored vehicles forced the Russians to change tactics and advance on foot. Ukraine found its anti-tank weapons ineffective in forcing enemy infantry into its lines of fire, hence the need for anti-personnel mines, no matter how dirty they were.

Read more: US decision to supply hated landmines to kyiv is both controversial and a depressing sign of how the war is going

On Putin's side, the main problem is that Russia's advantage on the ground has always depended on the asymmetric advantage conferred by the imbalance in troop numbers. Simply put, the Russian military has always been able to mobilize more bodies than Ukraine to throw into combat.

But some suggest Putin's labor pool may be shallower than he would like. Its decision to deploy North Korean troops in the Kursk region, the emptying of prisons to send convicts to the front and, more recently, the recruitment and training of troops from occupied parts of Ukraine, all suggest that respecting the Russian quota of 20,000 new soldiers each The month was not easy.

Russia now occupies a large part of the front line in eastern Ukraine and is advancing daily. Institute for the Study of War

Natasha Lindsteadt, an expert on authoritarian regimes at the University of Essex, gives us an in-depth look at how Russia is filling its ranks. She assumes that, quietly, Putin might be as eager as Donald Trump to end this conflict quickly: provided it favors his side, of course. Because Putin is quickly running out of people he can send to the front.

Read more: Russia needs a peace deal as soon as it runs out of soldiers

The view from Israel

In Washington, Trump's foreign policy choices are facing intense scrutiny. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be greatly encouraged by the news that Trump wants former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee to be his ambassador to Israel.

Huckabee, whose resume also recognizes his time as a talk show host, evangelical Baptist minister and candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008 and 2016 (when Huckabee called the president-elect a car wreck), is known for his outspoken opinions on Palestine. To know that it doesn't exist.

Huckabee publicly stated, after witnessing the inauguration of an illegal settlement in the West Bank, that: The West Bank does not exist. This is Judea and Samaria [the territorys biblical name]. There is no regulation. They are communities, they are neighborhoods, they are cities. There is no job.

Clive Jones, professor of regional security at Durham University and particularly interested in the Middle East, believes that Trump could put the brakes on the Israeli campaign in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and even against Iran.

Although Joe Biden has maintained unwavering support for Israel and the government of its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, he has privately urged caution. He recently tried to set a deadline for Israel to ensure that more food and humanitarian supplies arrive in Gaza, where people are starving.

But, as Jones notes here, Trump's pick for secretary of state, Marco Rubio, while primarily known as a China hawk, is officially opposed to a Gaza ceasefire. He recently told reporters: I want them [Israel] to destroy every element of Hamas they can get their hands on. These people are vicious animals who have committed horrible crimes.

With elements of the Netanyhu government calling for annexation of the West Bank, signs that they may also have their sights set on northern Gaza, and a US administration that appears ready to support Israel to the end, things seem dark for the Palestinian people, Jones concludes.

Read more: Gaza: Prospects are bleak for Palestinians under a Trump presidency that appears ready to go 'all the way' with Netanyahu

There has also been a major change in Netanyahu's cabinet. Earlier this month, he unceremoniously dumped his defense minister, Yoav Gallant. If Biden was trying to rein in Netanyahu from the White House, Gallant was perhaps the closest thing to someone trying to moderate the prime minister's behavior within his own government.

Gallant has long called for a ceasefire and hostage agreement. He also wanted universal conscription and an end to exemption from military service for ultra-Orthodox men. And, perhaps most importantly, he came out strongly in favor of an immediate state investigation into the causes of the Hamas attacks on October 7, something his critics say which he desperately seeks to avoid.

John Strawson of the University of East London, who writes regularly on Israeli politics here, believes Netanyahu could move against other powerful military voices in the coming weeks. He believes that the Israeli prime minister must reshape Israel in his own political image. This means not only diminishing the role of the judiciary, but also undermining the influence of the IDF and security services.

In what appears to be a sinister corollary to Gallant's dismissal and Huckabee's appointment as U.S. ambassador to Israel, Netanyahu has named a staunch far-right, Yechiel Leiter, as Israel's new ambassador to Washington. Leichter, from the Kahanist movement now banned in the United States, is known to be in favor of the annexation of the West Bank.

He will soon return to America to share his vision with the Trump administration.

Read more: Israel: Yoav Gallant's dismissal could have devastating consequences for both Palestinians and Israelis

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