Politics
China may be less influential at the United Nations than many think

China's influence at the United Nations has been hotly debated in recent years because of its potential impact, from climate change to global health, security, aid and human rights. As one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, China plays a crucial role in shaping laws, resolutions and international responses to global conflicts. Recently, China's position at the UN on Russia's aggression against Ukraine has once again brought to the forefront China's importance to the world, especially Europe.
China is already the world's second largest economy, which should equate to increasing leverage in terms of lobbying other UN members, arising either from its trade relationships or its loans and investments in UN members. UN, particularly in emerging and developing countries.
At Bruegel, we assessed China's influence at the UN. We focused on China's effectiveness at the UN in promoting its global narratives (“words”), particularly given the many global initiatives China has launched in recent years. The best known is the 2013 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Since then, a host of global initiatives have been introduced, such as the Community with a Shared Future for Humanity, popularized by President Xi at the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2017 and since then included in several UN General Assembly resolutions. United Nations. Another initiative is the Global Development Initiative, presented by Xi Jinping to the United Nations General Assembly in 2021 as a China-led initiative to advance the United Nations 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development Goals . A third narrative, the Global Security Initiative, launched in April 2022 just after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, focuses on state sovereignty, creating a balanced security architecture to ensure global collective security. Finally, China's most recent plan, the Global Civilization Initiative, emphasizes respect for cultural diversity among nations, promoting people-to-people exchanges as a cornerstone of global affairs.
When analyzing the extent to which these initiatives have been taken up in UN discourse compared to Western initiatives, the BRI stands out, while the others are comparable to Western initiatives in terms of influence (an exception is the Global Gateway of the European Union, which is rarely mentioned in UN documents). In general, China's global discourses are more self-referential than those of the West and are more focused on security than on topics such as aid and human rights.
To analyze the facts, i.e. the extent to which countries align with China when voting at the UN, we took into account all votes at the UN General Assembly ( UNGA) since 2000 and found that countries are more aligned with China than with the United States. However, this has been the case all along, with no significant upward trend. This result should not be surprising as it is mainly explained by the higher number of emerging and developing countries voting at the UN. In fact, we found that per capita income is a good indicator of voting alignment: high-income countries are closer to U.S. voting patterns than middle- or low-income countries. Interestingly, Russia has aligned itself to a very large extent with Chinese voting patterns since the beginning of our sample, meaning that the alignment between Russia and China predates the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, and even the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014.
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