2029 Anies fades or the light?

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The expectations of anies Baswedan always seem to exist, in particular in the context of the response, the study and positioning government policy. The response and maneuver of Anies were not impossible to be parts that would form a scenario to his appointment during the presidential election of 2029.

Pinterpolitik.com

Responding to the adoption of the latest version of the TNI law, Anies Baswedan gave a critical study. The language used is enough, typical of a lower anies.

Essentially, Anies asked why the amendment to the law seemed to be in a hurry on the DPR and a complete minimum participation of the public.

In addition, Anies also questioned and said the ideal thing about how to keep the TNI focused on its main task of maintaining the defense.

Although the 2029 presidential election is still sufficient, the expectations, existence and response of the ANIES on a crucial political political problem opening an interesting projection, namely the positioning of the anies until 2029. Of course, considering that the anies during the presidential election of 2024 won second place.

Then, why can the name Anies be considered calculated during the next electoral challenge in 2029?

Anies fuel octane test

Anies seemed to have social fuel Or a fairly good social fuel, namely while maintaining relationships and near the niche during the 2024 presidential election, in particular a group of young progressives.

Draft social fuel adopted share capital As Pierre Bourdieu submitted to Language and symbolic power, Referring to a social and symbolic capital that can move someone in the political arena.

Bourdieu stressed the importance of symbolic habitus and capital in the construction of political legitimacy.

In the context of Anies Baswedan, social fuel This is formed from a combination of share capital, academic reputation and political network which seems strong since the presidential election of 2024.

Again, one of the key elements of social fuel Anies is its proximity to the progressive voter group.

Data from the 2024 presidential election show that this voters' segment has contributed significantly to the voice of Anies. Obviously, it is not something that can be underestimated when it sees the possibility of an increase in the number of young critical voters in 2029.

The character of Anies who proposed intellectual stories, polite and based on ideas made him an attractive figure for this segment.

The biggest challenge in Anies is to maintain and extend this base, especially if young progressive groups are starting to look for new characters with cooler political ideas.

In addition, Anie's political relations are still liquid. The coalition that supports him during the 2024 presidential election, such as Nasdem, PKB and PKS, is now close to the Prabowo-Gibran government.

This then created a situation where the anies seemed “alone” on the map of national political power.

However, he did not show any attitude of frontal opposition to the government, but rather preferred moderate paths with constructive criticism.

This strategy can be an advantage, namely flexibility, if it wants to rebuild its political network without having to meet the current government directly.

Then, by reflecting on the dynamics of the last electoral challenge at the regional level, relations with PDIP could have developed in a positive direction for anios in the future with regard to the probability of anios to establish its own political party is always a question mark.

PDIP is Koentji?

The Jakarta elections in 2024 seemed to open a new chapter in the political relations of Anies with PDIP. Anies is considered a catalyst and a PRAMONO ANUNG and RANO KARNO victory factor.

This proves that although Anies and PDIP were in a fierce rivalry of the 2017 Jakarta elections until their reign in Jakarta, there are now opportunities for the two to establish a more liquid political symbiosis around 2029.

In the electoral political analysis, the sustainability of an alliance depends very much on pragmatic interests and the constellation of power.

PDIP, as a party with a strong organizational structure, is considered to be very considered to be its political relations with the Anies if it sees its electronic potential in 2029.

In addition, if PDIP believes that their internal candidates are not competitive enough, cooperating with Aniies can be a rational strategy.

However, several determining factors can affect this relationship. Mainly, PDIP's attitude towards the Prabowo-Gibran government and other variables.

First of allIf PDIP always chooses to be outside the government and wants to build a solid opposition power, then the possibility of cooperation with Anies will be even greater.

However, if PDIP was really starting to show signs close to the government, its position could be more difficult for the Anies.

SecondSuccession of leadership after Megawati Sukarnoputri would determine the political leadership of PDIP. If Puan Maharani or other figures of a more pragmatic faction take control, then cooperation with the anies can be more open or the vice versa refers to the dynamics of the first variable.

ThirdPrabowo should stay decision maker Main in the political constellation of 2029. If the 8th President of the Republic of Indonesia has chosen to go back or to orbit another figure of its circle, there will be a clear polarization between the government and the opposition camp.

In this scenario, Anies can benefit if it is able to build an alternative axis with PDIP.

Fourth, the Joko Widodo (Jokowi) factor seems to have a strong influence in national politics. If it remains floury And controlling the political direction after 2024, the position of the anies will also depend on the way it sailing with Jokowi.

However, the support and political direction of other elites outside the above variables would also determine the work and the existence of Anies in 2029.

The long path to 2029 would still be sloping on the surface, but quite difficult behind the scenes.

Probableltas that the anies will continue to maintain a moderate position and will try to build a wider coalition by welcoming various political interests, in particular with factions of government which can change direction before 2029 could determine.

However, if the anies are too long in position coldness Without concrete actions, it is possible that it loses momentum.

Conversely, if it is too aggressive without a solid political base, it can be trapped in a more important and difficult political game.

The above interpretation can be relevant in the future. Of course, it will depend very on the dynamics of the political government that occurs. (J61)