No, this is not new. Russia and China have been the best friends in decades

Maybe people are just starting to notice the narrow alignment of Russia and China. He discussed as a new sudden phenomenon in world affairs, but in fact it is not new at all.

The two countries have been the most important diplomatic partner of each other since 2002, according to my research. Throughout this period, Russia was at the heart of Chinese construction of an alternative world order.

Based in the structured manner, the Chinese Foreign Ministry publishes incoming and outgoing diplomatic visits, I built a database which covers the presidential periods of Hu Jintao (20022012) and Xi Jinping (2012). My clearest observation was the domination of Sino-Russian exchanges. The graph below shows the trend of visits to Russia-China.

Visits to Russia-China (ministerial or superior) listed by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Source: Author.

This habit of decades of intense interactions remained stable after the large -scale invasion of Ukraine in Ukraine in February 2022. Beijing and Moscow, just as dark of international order cannot be canceled by some trips of European miners impatient to China or to some unhappy American concessions to Russia.

The intimate nature of the president's bonds to the president is clear. Beyond the period covered by the database, there has been a state visit in one direction or the other each year since 1999. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin took office in 2000, a Russian president made a state visit to China each year, and each unequal year, a Chinese president went to Russia. Exceptions are Xis's additional visit to Moscow in 2015, officially called a simple participation, for the Second World War victory parade. And there was no visit in both cases during the COVVI-19 pandemic. Hu and Xi made their first visit abroad as president in Moscow.

There is no other country that has a diplomatic relationship with China like this. Russia is the best outgoing destination during the presidential terms of Hu Jintaos and Xi Jinpings. Russia has been the main source of incoming visits for Hus two terms; He ranked second or third for the first two terms XIS and, so far, for his third term as well. Few foreign officials have led delegations in China as often as Putin and the Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov.

My data shows that Russia has been the most important Chinese diplomatic partner in Hu and Xi governments. Observers are right to point out the personal relationship XI and Putin have developed that includes birthday phone calls. However, the empirical data show that the interaction was just as intense when Dmitry Medvedev was president of Russia and under the under less assisted nationalist Hu.

Beyond diplomatic visits, Russia is fundamental for the Alternative World Order of Beijing. He has always been an important member of international groups that Beijing began to be built from the 1990s, including the Conference on the interaction and strengthening measures of Confidence in Asia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Chinese opinions on international order have developed a more global perspective over the years. From the Summit of East Asia and economic cooperation in Asia-Pacific closer to her house, China now reaches the world in development through groups such as BRICS +. Russia has always been to support the Beijing camp.

Now this expansion horizon reaches Europe.

Chinas' long -term solution for what she still stubbornly calls the Ukrainian crisis rides the elements of the Russian vision of the regional order. In the days following February 24, 2022, the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi Five -point position This called for the formation of a balanced, efficient and sustainable European security mechanism.

Wang has linked the complex historical context of conflicts to the principle of indivisible security. This idea of ​​the era of the Cold War evolved In a sentence used by the Soviet Union and now by Russia to affirm that the expansion of NATO breaks its sovereignty. Chinese officials have also described since 2022 American Indo-Pacific Policy as a NATO from Asia-Pacific who risks triggering the same disaster as NATO has been supposed in Europe.

At his press conference after the parliament of the Parliament in Beijing, Wang said that no third party could influence friendly ties between China and Russia. The data support him. The relationship was at the heart of Chinese efforts to get rid of the world.

Despite massive historical differences between the Sino-Soviet split and today, the data show that the practical situation in the field is durable and durable. Chinese diplomatic links with Russia have not increased or decreased significantly since February 2022. On the other hand, my data shows that after the 2014 diplomatic interactions between China and Ukraine have decreased.

Xiwho did not call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Oncetold Putin during his last state visit in 2023 that Russia and China led invisible changes in a hundred years, which he links to his Chinese dream.

In the world of XI and Poutines, there can be room for Donald Trump. But there is no room for international order based on the rules on which many countries depend. Western capitals and Washington experts must realize that it is not a whim; Russia has always been the most important Chinese diplomatic partner.