College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction, Week 12 Period

The second 2024 College Football Playoff rankings are almost here, and we enter these rankings with an already predetermined idea of ​​how the CFP committee views each team. Before the CFP Committee releases the next rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will land.

The second of six CFP top 25 reveals takes place on Tuesday, November 5 (here's the full schedule). Ahead of the announcement, here's a prediction of how the committee might rank the top 25 teams. Please note that these are my predictions, and mine alone. I look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams as I think the CFP committee will. You can read the CFP Committee's official protocols here.

2024 College Football Playoffs Rankings Predictions: Week 12 Top 25 Projections

These predictions are from Sunday, November 10.

1. Oregon (10-0) LW: 1 As long as Oregon keeps winning, the Ducks will stay on top.
2. Ohio State (8-1) LW: 2 A shutout win should undermine any argument about who should be the nation's No. 2 seed.
3. Texas (8-1) LW: 5 Expect Texas to move into the top three after Georgia and Miami lose.
4. Tennessee (8-1) LW: 7 Tennessee's win over Alabama gained momentum after the Tide defeated LSU. That small boost will move Tennessee into the committee's top four.
5. Penn State (8-1) LW: 6 Penn State won the whiteout game against Washington and will move into the top five.
6. Indiana (10-0) LW: 8 Is a win over Michigan enough to move Indiana into the top five? I don't think so, especially for a Tennessee team with a win over Alabama.
7. BYU (9-0) LW: 9 BYU won a nail-biter over Utah in the Holy War, but I don't think a close win will lead to the committee dropping the Cougars as a two-loss team.
8. Alabama (7-2) LW: 11 Alabama should be the No. 8 team in the country after dominating LSU in Death Valley. Until someone loses for the Tide, I don't think the CFP committee can overlook their two losses.
9. Georgia (7-2) LW: 3 Georgia topped Miami last week, and will remain above the Hurricanes after losing to a ranked opponent. However, the Bulldogs will fall to Alabama due to head-to-head matchups.
10. Miami (9-1) LW: 4 Miami's loss to Georgia Tech on the road is better than Notre Dame's loss to Northern Illinois at home. Fortunately for the Hurricanes, Notre Dame is bottom in these rankings.
11. Ole Miss (7-2) LW: 16 Ole Miss will be the last big team in the bracket this week after a handy win over Georgia. South Carolina should also be in the rankings, giving the Rebels another win on their resume.
12. Notre Dame (8-1) LW: 10 Notre Dame falls out of the playoff field while Alabama and Ole Miss move ahead. With only one ranked opponent left on the schedule, the committee could send a message this week about Notre Dame's stability in the bracket.
13. Boise State (8-1) LW: 12 Boise State will remain in the playoffs as the highest projected conference champion left, but it won't be one of the top 12 teams after a narrow win over Nevada.
14. SMU (8-1) LW: 13 SMU will not move for any team after a bye.
15. Texas A&M (7-2) LW: 14 Texas A&M will not move for any team after a bye.
16. Kansas State (7-2) LW: 19 Kansas State had a bye and will advance after three teams ahead of it lost.
17. Colorado (7-2) LW: 20 Colorado controls its destiny and could make the CFP the conference champions. However, the road to becoming a top-12 team has a roadblock with a head-to-head loss to Kansas State.
18. Washington State (8-1) LW: 21 Washington State still has a long way to go to become one of the top 12 teams, but should move up three spots this week.
19. Louisville (6-3) LW: 22 Louisville remains above Clemson after the Cardinals received a bye.
20. Clemson (6-2) LW: 23 Last week's rankings told us that the committee won't rank Clemson ahead of Louisville after a head-to-head loss unless the Tigers get a rankings victory.
21. Missouri (6-2) LW: 24 Missouri's victory over Oklahoma does not carry as much weight as was thought in the preseason. The Tigers likely need to win an SEC title to make the playoffs based on the committee's initial rankings.
22. Army (9-0) LW: 25 Army's win over North Texas wasn't groundbreaking, so the Black Knights don't crack the top 20 just yet.
23. LSU (6-3) LW: 15 Sometimes it's as much about how you lose as it is about who you lose to. For LSU, both will drop the Tigers to the bottom of the top 25. A loss on home field is never a good look.
24. South Carolina (6-3) LW: NO South Carolina beat a good Vanderbilt team a week after beating a ranked Texas A&M team. The Gamecocks are ranked by the committee this week after feeling snubbed last week.
25. Arizona State (7-2) LW: NO I think the committee will give Arizona State the last spot in this week's rankings. The Sun Devils should be ranked above fellow Big 12 school Iowa State, even though the Cyclones were ranked last week. Arizona State has won two in a row, while Iowa State has lost two in a row. An argument could be made for ranking Tulane, but I don't see the committee ranking two American teams in their second ranking.

CFP: College Football Playoff Rankings Publication Schedule

What the brace might look like

First teams out: No. 12 Notre Dame, No. 14 SMU, No. 15 Texas A&M

FORECAST: 2024-25 College Football Playoff Schedule, Dates, TV Channel, Sites

Notable questions about the College Football Playoff rankings

How far are Georgia and Miami?

Georgia and Miami are out of the top three this week. We know that. What we don't know is where the schools will land. Both schools should be in the top 12, but the teams the committee puts ahead of the Bulldogs and Hurricanes will show how much room for error both programs have down the road.

LAST WEEK RECAP: Ole Miss upsets No. 3 Georgia, Georgia Tech stuns No. 4 Miami in Week 11

How much will Alabama and Ole Miss rise?

Alabama and Ole Miss both had wins over ranked teams. The Tide were already in the expected playoff bracket last week, but how high could they be this week? Meanwhile, Ole Miss wasn't one of the first two teams to drop out, but I think a win over the No. 3 team in the country could put the Rebels in the race.

Is it an SEC title or a bust for LSU?

LSU may have been eliminated at home by Alabama for its third loss, but it was only the second SEC conference loss for the Tigers. LSU can still make the playoff by winning the SEC title game, but will they need to? It depends on how low the Tigers are in the second CFP rankings. Anything outside the top 20 will likely make the SEC title game or bust.