RJ Young
FOX Sports National College Football Analyst
How unpredictable has the 2024 college football season been?
Kansas has one of those records that tells blatant lies to your face. We knew the Jayhawks were good. That's why they were ranked among the top 25 teams in the country by both myself and the Associated Press heading into this season. So while KU became the first team ever with a losing record in the FBS to win three straight games against top 25 programs, it shocked few that Lance Leipold's team accomplished the feat. What was even more shocking was that this team only started to find its form halfway through the season. Kansas might as well have been a CFP projected selection like Arizona State is now, even after a 3-9 season in 2023.
But that's how unpredictable this year has been and how expectations for what a team can accomplish remain volatile even with the postseason just a week away. Colorado, a team that went 4-8 last year and lost to unranked Kansas last week, can still make the CFP. Indiana, a team that had won just nine games combined over the past three years, is one win away from securing the first 11-win season in program history. And yes, the Hoosiers can make the CFP.
And now it's rivalry week, the final week of a regular season in which all but one team suffered a loss. Unlikely setbacks are a common theme and the most exciting feature of 2024. I wouldn't be surprised if my projections suffer from that volatility at least one more time.
That said, here are my updated CFP projections:
1. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
File: 11-0
2. Texas
Conference: SEC
File: 10-1
3. SMU
Conference: ACC
File: 10-1
4. State of Arizona
Conference: Big 12
File: 9-2
5. State of Ohio
Conference: Big Ten
File: 9-1
6. Our Lady
Conference:Independent
File: 10-1
7. Penn State
Conference: Big Ten
File: 10-1
8. Indiana
Conference: Big Ten
File: 10-1
9. Georgia
Conference:SEC
File: 9-2
10. Miami (Fla.)
Conference:ACC
File: 10-1
11. Tennessee
Conference: SEC
File: 9-2
12. Boise State
Conference: Mountain West
File: 10-1
QUARTERFINAL MATCHES
1. Oregon: Bye (then plays against the winner of 8. Indiana vs. 9. Georgia)
2.Texas: Bye (then plays against the winner of 7. Penn State vs. 10. Miami)
3. SME: Bye (would then play the winner of 6. Notre Dame vs. 11. Tennessee)
4. State of Arizona: Bye (then plays the winner of 5. Ohio State vs. 12. Boise State)
FIRST ROUND MATCHES
5. Ohio State vs. 12. Boise State
As Ashton Jeanty continues to break Barry Sanders' single-season rushing record, needing just 566 rushing yards, a date with an Ohio State team could make for an explosive affair.
The Buckeye defense has proven stingy, holding teams to just 241.7 yards per game this season, but no team has proven capable of stopping Jeanty.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty has helped lead the Broncos to a 10-1 record this season. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
6. Notre Dame vs. 11. Tennessee
Every program has a striking file. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love has rushed for 850 yards on 7.0 yards per carry this season, while Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson has rushed for 1,307 yards with 22 touchdowns in 11 games. The last time the Vols played Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish won 41-21 in 2005.
Notre Dame is 10-1 heading into the final week of the regular season. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)
7. Penn State vs. 10. Miami
Cam Ward and the Hurricanes would take their high-powered offense to Happy Valley against Penn State's capable defense. The Hurricanes have the No. 1 scoring offense in the country (44.7 points per game), while the Nittany Lions are No. 11 in scoring defense (14.6 points per game).
Cam Ward and the Miami Hurricanes are the best scoring offense in the country. (Photo by Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
8. Indiana vs. 9. Georgia
In what might be the surest test of the Big Ten's mettle against SEC power Georgia, this game could help set a new standard not only for how the Big Ten should be viewed in the future, but for Indiana. Hoosier fans didn't expect to be playing in the CFP in August.
Georgia QB Carson Beck has thrown for 3,132 yards and 23 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of “The Number One College Football Show” podcast. Follow him up @RJ_Young.
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