College Football Playoff Rankings: Oregon remains top, Georgia rejoins top five, Alabama in expected field

The fifth and penultimate edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings was released Tuesday evening, with undefeated Oregon maintaining its spot at No. 1, as has been the case in every set of rankings during this first year of the expanded 12-team field. The Ducks, the only remaining undefeated team in the FBS, are at the top and are trying to make their second playoff appearance overall – the first since the four-team field debuted after the 2014 season – during conference championship weekend.

Seven of the ten teams ranked No. 1 in the initial season-long CFP rankings ultimately reached the playoffs in the four-team era, with Mississippi State (2014), Tennessee (2022) and Ohio State (2023) among them exceptions. With eight spots left in the field this season, Oregon is in a strong position at 11-0 as the only remaining undefeated program in the country.

Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Georgia round out the top five, with the Bulldogs replacing Ohio State, which fell to Michigan in The Game last Saturday but retained a spot in the expected 12-team field.

In the battle for the final playoff spots between the three-loss SEC teams and Miami, it is Alabama that currently tops not only the Hurricanes, but also Ole Miss and South Carolina.

The Group of Five's top program in Tuesday's release remained Boise State at No. 10, its highest ranking so far this season. Because the 12-team playoff model awards automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions, the Broncos are in pole position to seize that opportunity if they win their league. At this point they would get a bye. Other Group of Five teams in this week's rankings are UNLV (20), Army West Point (24) and Memphis (25).

Let's take a look at the full top 25 of the CFP rankings, along with the projected seedings for the first 12 teams. View bowls expert Jerry Palm's analysis below.

College football playoff rankings, December 3

1. Oregon (12-0) | Projected No. 1 seed
2. Texas (11-1) | Projected No. 2 seed
3. Penn State (11-1) | Projected seed No. 5
4. Notre Dame (11-1) | Projected seed No. 6
5. Georgia (10-2)| Projected seed No. 7
6. Ohio State (10-2)| Projected No. 8 seed
7. Tennessee (10-2)| Projected seed No. 9
8. SMU (11-1)| Projected No. 3 seed
9. Indiana (11-1)| Projected No. 10 seed
10. Boise State (11-1)| Projected No. 4 seed
11. Alabama (9-3)| Projected seed No. 11
12. Miami(10-2)
13. Ole Miss (9-3)
14. South Carolina (9-3)
15. Arizona State (10-2)| Projected seed No. 12
16. Iowa State (10-2)
17. Clemson (9-3)
18. BYU (10-2)
19. Missouri (9-3)
20. UNLV (10-2)
21. Illinois (9-3)
22. Syracuse (9-3)
23. Colorado (9-3)
24. Army West Point (10-1)
25. Memphis (10-2)

Analysis by bowl expert Jerry Palm

One of the most reliable behaviors of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee over the past decade is that teams have sat idle over conference championship weekend and not seen a major change in their standing in the rankings. It is possible that teams playing will move between them, but their position in relation to each other will not change.

That has been universally true…except one time.

It was in 2014, the first year of the CFP, when the final weekend wasn't just championship games. Michigan State was two spots ahead of Mississippi State entering the final weekend, with Kansas State in between. The Wildcats lost that weekend, and when the final standings were released, the Bulldogs were one spot ahead of the Spartans. Nine years of consistency gives us good reason to believe that will be the case this season as well.

That means the line between No. 10 Alabama (in) and No. 11 in the rankings Miami (out) will also be the line on Sunday. The losers of the Big Ten and SEC title games remain high enough in the rankings to stay in the playoffs. However, if No. 8 SMU were to lose, they would be replaced by No. 17 Clemson in the field as conference champions. But I think it's unlikely that the Mustangs would remain high enough in the rankings to remain a major losing team. Clemson might not jump SMU because it would have one fewer loss, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if SMU fell to Miami.

Please note that in the eyes of the CFP selection committee, there is no special reward for winning the regular season. There is no head-to-head score between the Mustangs and Hurricanes, so they would simply be evaluated like any other two teams would.

SMU's situation would be different in that regard than if Georgia or Penn State lost. The selection committee has historically been very kind to lower-ranked teams that lose their conference championship games, as long as the game is competitive. The same consideration does not apply when the higher ranked team loses. It's not a given that the Mustangs will remain in the field as an at-large team with a loss to a team nine spots lower.

So as of today, the big teams would be in order: Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana and Alabama. However, two of these teams play on Saturday, so things could change. SMU is the only other team in line for a spot if needed.