Essential: NATO's strong technology, Northern Highlands Defense

Great power competition is accelerating in the High North, where critical emerging technologies will determine whether authoritarians or democracies rule the emerging region.

Last year, Russia and China agreed to jointly develop the region economically and militarily, effectively ending an era when cooperative efforts like the Arctic Council tried to chart a path forward. The two countries have also agreed to joint coast guard exercises, and Russia is increasingly shipping oil to China via the Arctic Ocean. Russia holds the largest landmass in the Arctic and continues to invest heavily in Arctic defense infrastructure.

Seven of the eight countries in the Arctic Council are NATO members, and given the growing challenges, thorough, long-term security planning is critical. The Pentagon has responded with an updated Arctic strategy going forward, and last year organized multiple Arctic military exercises.

Figure: NATO allies wake up to Russia's superiority in the region Russia has about a third more naval and air bases in the Arctic than NATO.Credit: Reuters

However, NATO cannot rely on past approaches to technology and must evolve it for today's High North region, which presents national security challenges across geostrategy, economics, and the environment.

However, despite the scale of this challenge, this alliance creates an asymmetric military advantage by effectively and deliberately developing new technologies across several key issues in the Highland North. be able to.

First, approximately 25% of the Northern Hemisphere has deep permafrost (permafrost) that supports the Arctic's infrastructure. However, if global warming continues unchecked, it is estimated that 30-85% of the current underground permafrost will melt by the end of this century. This could wreak havoc on the physical infrastructure of the Arctic and impede military operations. Many of Alaska's bridges are reportedly structurally deficient, and roads are already sinking into the melting snow.

Rapidly deployable infrastructure can ensure mobility in the face of such decline. These structures must be durable, mobile, and modular to function in harsh environments. Systems such as the M60 Armored Vehicle Launch Bridge (AVLB) are currently used in rugged terrain, deploying a 60-foot bridge to cover large gaps.

Marshall Land Systems develops deployable infrastructure units that serve as modular containers for a variety of functions, from medical centers to machine shops. HyWatts uses hydrogen as an energy storage medium to provide continuous renewable power to these systems from modular containers in any environment. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) High North countries will need to invest further in new deployable solutions to enable operations across Arctic missions, especially during full conflict.

They have little choice. Economic activity is accelerating in the High North, and the US NOAA Arctic Report Card points to satellite records showing a significant increase in shipping activity since 2009 as Arctic sea ice declines.

More activity means greater geopolitical risks and the need for greater preparedness. Icebreakers are controversial, as their link to melting sea ice is debated, but they exist year-round in the Arctic and are essential to sustaining transportation. The United States only has two such ships, both of which have reached the end of their life cycles. China has 4 people and Russia has 40 people.

The U.S. Coast Guard's Polar Security Cutter program aims to build three large icebreakers this decade, but production is reportedly years behind schedule and is likely to end has not been able to meet national demand. Currently, the United States does not have enough skilled labor to manufacture enough of these technologically complex ships. This needs to change, and NATO's joint efforts could help ensure consistent access to the region.

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Second, as traffic volume increases across the region, NATO countries will be able to investigate, document, and monitor foreign intrusions, such as detecting foreign intrusions, understanding the movement of goods and people, and improving terrain caused by factors such as global warming. We need to further improve our ability to track changes in

Domain awareness is an ongoing challenge in large Arctic landmass countries like Alaska, where strained connectivity, power access, and extreme weather all impede unmanned systems. NASA's Vanilla drone flew for six hours over the Arctic Circle, totaling more than 130 miles. Applying unique technologies such as internal heating systems and anti-icing coatings to other robotic systems could improve their resiliency, durability, and interoperability within the Arctic.

Additionally, space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (SB-ISR) sensors are also important. However, satellites have historically struggled with connectivity, signal fidelity, and resolution quality due to snowfall, cloud cover, wind, and precipitation. To address these, Canada funded the Enhanced Satellite Communications Project Polar (ESCP-P). This enables narrowband and wideband satellite communications, including beyond visual line of sight.

Polar orbiting satellites and the infrastructure to launch them are also becoming increasingly important. Russia launched the Arctica M satellite in December. This is the second of nine aircraft planned to enter orbit by 2026. The seven NATO countries in the High North region need to expand their own space and ground communications, including durable communications and ground communications. Portable 5G systems and polar-orbiting satellites will provide ubiquitous and rapid data transmission for NATO operations in the Northern Highlands.

Third, for the Alliance to have a consistent and comprehensive presence in the Arctic, much of its current hardware and infrastructure must be winterized. This legacy technology winterization will be applied to ports, airfields, bases, and military equipment to withstand harsh arctic climates. Iris A. Ferguson, assistant secretary of defense for Arctic and global resiliency, said Russia is renovating airfields and making significant updates to defense structures throughout the Arctic region.

Underwater and surface capabilities should be a priority, and the Defense Innovation Agency (DIU) is leveraging multiple technologies to meet this need, including Saildrone's unmanned surface vehicles and Strategic Robotic Systems' underwater Fusion drone. I've invested.

All of NATO must focus on these issues. Continued efforts in the broader defense community to strengthen the Western defense industrial base through investment in new technologies will be important in the Arctic, but much of what is needed is highly specialized and This will not be an easy process, given that it is likely to be relatively small-scale. -Scale production.

It will be difficult for the private sector to raise funds, and government involvement will be essential. As a result, start-ups and mature companies alike face limited market opportunities and limited private investment in developing defense and dual-use technologies suitable for the Highland North. Addressing these challenges will require NATO countries, especially the seven Arctic members including the United States, to tap into demand through funding for concept and production.

Nicholas Nelson is a Senior Fellow for Emerging Technologies and Policy at CEPA and a partner at MD One Ventures, Europe's first defense and military technology-focused venture capital fund. In addition to this, Nelsons' research and analysis focuses on emerging defense and dual-use technologies. He also advises various deep tech venture-backed startups.

Andrew Stiles has been a management consultant advising executives on emerging technologies for nearly a decade. In this role, he has been instrumental in growing a business group focused on the aerospace and defense markets from its first few employees to his more than 100 employees. He also supports his funds in institutional ventures in the US and UK and holds his MBA from Wharton.

Kyra Terenzio is a management consultant specializing in emerging technologies for a leading professional services firm and holds a bachelor's degree in business administration from the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley.

Europes Edge is CEPA's online journal covering key topics in European and North American foreign policy. All opinions are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the positions or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.

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