Prepare for the next big earthquake and tsunami

Florence, OR. We all know western Oregon has the potential for earthquakes and tsunamis, but with our busy lives, it can be easy to forget that we live in an area prone to natural disasters.

Off the coast of Oregon, the Cascadia Subduction is a time bomb, according to Oregon State University marine geologist Chris Goldfinger.

“The Juan de Fuca plate is receding under North America,” he said. “We have a 10 to 15% chance of a 9 event on the Richter scale, which doesn’t sound like much, but Japan had a 20% chance in 2011 when they had a tsunami.”

Off the coast of Oregon, there are several fault lines, such as the Blanco Transform Fault, Juan De Fuca Ridge, Gorda Ridge, and Cascadia Subduction Zone. All of these faults, except for the Cascadia Subduction Zone, will produce earthquakes but not tsunamis. This is because they either slip through each other, or spread out.

What makes the Cascadia subduction zone a concern is the fact that it converges with the North American Plate. The oceanic crust is denser and burrows under the North American plate. As it is, friction is created. Eventually one day it will release and displace tons of ocean water, causing a massive tsunami.

Goldfinger said the wave would rise about 40 to 60 feet and would travel at up to 500 miles per hour out to sea. As it approaches shore, its speed will slow from 20 to 30 miles per hour. The shaking from the earthquake will last up to five minutes, then after 15-20 minutes the wave will reach the coast. The waters would flood downtown Florence, and the wave effects would travel as far as the Siuslaw River like Mapleton. It would take 40 to 60 minutes, he said, for Mapleton to see a flood.

Our infrastructure will not be able to handle an earthquake followed by a tsunami, said Pedro Lomonaco, a researcher at the Hindale Wave Research Lab in Corvallis.

“What happens when you have a tall building, is the space under the structure that will allow water to pass through,” Lomonaco said.

He added that the reason our infrastructure can’t handle the earthquake is that our homes and bridges were built even before the theory of plate tectonics was discovered. We will have to modify our infrastructure to equip everything.

In cities like Florence, emergency managers are well aware of the risks of a catastrophic earthquake.

“We are planning for the Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. We make sure we have staff trained to assess buildings after an earthquake,” said Megan Mesmer, assistant city manager for Florence. “We have annual meetings to educate people about the risks. Our newspapers have information on tsunami evacuation, and we had a grant program that allowed us to put blue lines on the road so that people knew when to leave the tsunami danger zone.”

If the big loss happens, she said, evacuate on foot, not by car. Many deaths occur when people leave by car. The most important thing is to have a game plan of what to do to get to higher ground in the event of a tsunami.

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