Common rocks may hold the secret to predicting future earthquakes

Greywacke is ubiquitous in New Zealand and most of us will never take a second look.

But for Victoria University geography lecturer, Dr. Carolyn Bolton, it’s a rock with important secrets to reveal.

“It’s these rocks that started the earthquakes that we’ve been feeling recently,” Dr. Bolton says.

That’s because an earthquake is caused by slip in the fault, and some of its effect is determined by the types of rocks present in the fault.

“Seismicities in graywacke tend to start at a single point in depth, but as you come up to the surface they tend to branch out and use a lot of pre-existing plains to weaken in the rocks,” says Dr. Bolton.

It was those weaknesses that caused 22 different faults to rupture on the surface during the 7.8-magnitude Kaikoura earthquake in 2016.

“It’s kind of grey, it’s kind of monotonous, and it’s also very distorted, which means it’s hard to work with,” Dr. Bolton says.

It is made up of a mixture of sandstone and shale and for many years people have ignored it – until now.

The Earthquake Commission (EQC) has funded research to correct the knowledge gap.

“It contains some basic science and information that will teach us how the defects behave and occur,” says Natalie Belfort, director of research at EQC.

The researchers put graywacke into the machines to replicate the earthquakes.

“I measure things like the strength of the rocks, the temperature at which earthquakes occur, and how fast the rocks are moving,” Dr. Bolton says.

This helps explain why New Zealand experiences multiple fault earthquakes, and how an earthquake in an area can have an indirect effect.

“When one fault explodes, it puts additional stress on another fault, and we need to understand how these stress reactions can accelerate or slow down the timing of the next earthquake,” Dr. Bolton says.

Dr. Bolton’s research has helped validate other data we already have on Wellington earthquakes, helping scientists understand why and where they occur.

We will never be able to predict exactly when earthquakes will occur, but this information will help us better plan for them including people who live near faults and better land and building use.

So, look again at that dull gray boulder – it’s an important piece of the puzzle that makes up New Zealand’s intricate fault lines.

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