Alpine Fault Earthquake Series: Landslides, Floods, and Predicted Liquefaction

An earthquake on the Alpine fault line is expected to be felt in New Zealand. Public Interest Journalism funded by NZ on Air. Video / North and South

Faultlines is a partnership with North & South Magazine – the full interactive project can be found here.

If the Alpine fault line ruptures, the earthquake can be expected to be felt everywhere in the country.

Over the past 8000 years, there has been a major earthquake on the fault line approximately every 300 years. The last was in 1717.

Research over the past two decades shows, that we now know that there is a 75 percent chance that an earthquake will occur on the Alpine fault in the next 50 years, and an 82 percent chance that it will be more than eight on the Richter scale.

This – AF8, as it’s called – we can prepare for.

Dr. Carolyn Orkeston says that when you have the ground motion of an 8 magnitude earthquake, it triggers a cascading chain of events.

“Mountains shake a lot, which leads to landslides and rivers may catch up or intersect with roads.”

Orchiston is the flagship science of the AF8 campaign – a collaboration between the Civil Defense Emergency Department and Alpine Fault scientists to bring scientific evidence to the communities that need to hear it.

Deciding whether or not to rupture, she said, the ground motions would begin in Milford Sound and travel straight along the South Island.

The Alpine Fault extends several hundred kilometers from near Milford Sound all the way to Nelson Lakes National Park. Pictures / North and South

A rupture of the Alpine fault surface, where the fault fractures directly to the surface, is also expected at approximately 350-400 km.

“Movement through this surface rupture would be about 10 meters horizontal and up to two or three meters vertical.

“If the rift crosses a road, bridge, or town, it will be severely destroyed.”

Another important consequence of an earthquake in the Alps will be on the power grid.

Through the Arthur Corridor area, the towers take electricity from east to west, and outages could result in prolonged blackouts, Orkeston said.

New research estimates that a major earthquake could block highways on the South Island in more than 120 places, isolating 10,000 people. It costs the economy about $10 billion.

The Arthur Pass is located in the middle of the Alpine Fault Zone.

The Arthur Pass is located in the middle of the Alpine Fault Zone. Pictures / North and South

Chris Stewart of Arthur’s Pass Community Response Team said they expect to be severely affected.

“The big threat here is being blocked. The river is cursed, and the place may well be flooded.”

“So we’re working on a basic way to get people out of here,” he said.

State Highway 73 passes through Arthur Pass, coming over a one-lane bridge at the Weimacareri River.

Through the Arthur Corridor area, the towers take electricity from east to west, and outages could result in prolonged blackouts, Orkeston said. Pictures / North and South

Stewart says that if the big bridge happens, they fear the bridge will be destroyed.

“We love the place and we just have to make sure we can prepare.”

Orchison said it wouldn’t just be an earthquake in the West Coast.

“The results of this earthquake will be felt throughout the South Island and in fact, it is likely to be felt by everyone in New Zealand.”

She said it is very difficult to predict the effects of the Alpine capsize earthquake on people in terms of losses or injuries.

“We can call these things black swan events which are absolutely unpredictable.

“This could involve a bus traveling along the SH6 being hit by a landslide, and in such cases, we will receive significant deaths or injuries.”

For more information on AF8 visit the website and how to best prepare visit getready.govt.nz

• NZ On Air funded public interest journalism

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