Earthquake Promo: Get ready when the big earthquake hits

Dr. Rob Langridge wants people to talk, know their neighbors, make a plan, and be prepared for the worst-case scenario should an Alpine fault rupture.

Before the Alpine Magnitude 8 (AF8) fault show stops, Temuka and Fairlie stop at the road show on Wednesday and Thursday, Langridge said that “connectivity builds resilience between people in communities.”

This was highlighted by a rural community in New Zealand in the aftermath of Hurricane Gabriel, with examples of residents of neighborhoods cut off due to road and bridge closures coming together and helping each other, he said.

“I think one of the biggest things about the aftermath of a hurricane is that it has brought people closer together. You see how interdependent they are on each other,” Langridge said.

Read more: * AF8 Roadshow brings earthquake awareness to Timaru and Waimate * No damage reported from 5.6-magnitude earthquake near Milford Sound * Alpine Fault Forum gears up for big event

He thinks this must be the case after any major disaster, or severe weather event,

Langridge, a Wellington-based GNS scientist and seismologist, studies active fault lines in New Zealand.

He will be speaking in South Canterbury on behalf of AF8, a program for scientific modeling, response planning and community engagement in anticipation of the 8-degree boundary on an Alpine fault.

The Alpine Fault is an 800-kilometer seismic feature on the western side of the Southern Alps. It roughly extends from Milford Sound in the south to Lewis Pass in the north. Over the past 7,000 years, it has ruptured a remarkable 27 times – about every 300 years.

The last big move was in 1717, 306 years ago, and there’s a 75% chance it will explode in the next 50 years.

And there is an 82% chance that it will be a strength of 8 or slightly higher.

Langridge has worked for GNS for 23 years, and has been a part of the roadshow for the past three tours.

At the time, he was impressed with the level of interest from the audience, and described some performances in the past as packed and in need of more chairs.

“There is a lot of participation.

“Preparation is really important as a big earthquake can happen anytime in the South Island.”

As part of AF8, experts and modelers looked at scenarios along the fault, and determined that in the worst case, the rupture would start in the south, somewhere between Milford, and tear forward for hundreds of kilometres.

An animation generated by AF8 shows the energy from the Milford earthquake passing under the Southern Water Lakes less than a minute later. The energy hits Timaru and the soft sediments of the Canterbury Plains in about 1.45 minutes.

John Bisset/Stuff

One scenario from AF8 shows the energy from the Milford earthquake passing under the southern water lakes less than a minute later. Energy hits Timaru at about the 1.45 minute mark. (file photo)

The shaking then reaches Christchurch about 2.20 minutes after the initial rip, lasting over a minute. Shake continues to travel north and Marlborough lashes out at Nelson and Wellington.

“Some model scenarios point to a cluster of devastating earthquakes in South Canterbury,” he said.

“Parts of Timaru won’t move as much on harder rock, and some areas of Timuca are in deep settlement, so they could be stronger there.”

Langridge said his AF8 talk will include the science behind the Alpine fault and earthquake magnitude.

I will talk about the damage on a personal level and on the infrastructure.

‘And also about earthquake preparedness.”

He said that messages about disaster preparedness have changed over the past decade.

Now I’m recommending people stock up on seven days’ worth of food, water, and medicine in case the holidays get ripped—more than double the three supplies it recommended a decade ago.

While personal responsibility is important, and having a plan with the family, Langridge said it’s also important to talk to neighbors.

‘Speak to the wider community.”

The 2023 AF8 Roadshow will visit Timoca on Wednesdays at 7pm at Alpine Energy Stadium (upper deck), and Fairlie on Thursdays at 7pm at Fairlie Community Hall. The events are free.

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