The United States has an updated earthquake hazard map

Nearly 15% of the U.S. population is somewhat likely to experience a damaging earthquake in the coming decades, according to the recently published U.S. National Earthquake Hazard Model (NSHM).

The model, created by scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), combines seismic and geological data to identify areas of the country at risk of strong tremors. The team visualized the model with a nationwide map of the potential for harmful vibrations.

“Updated risk models serve important purposes.”

It is the first iteration of the NSHM to include all 50 states and is updated from previous models published in 2018 (contiguous United States), 1998 (Hawaii), and 2007 (Alaska).

“The updated hazard models serve important purposes,” said James Neely, a seismologist at the University of Chicago who was not involved in developing the model. “They help remind the general public of earthquake risks, inform policy planners about the earthquake risks they need to prepare for, and inform engineers about the extent of tremors to expect when designing buildings and infrastructure.”

Imperfections in our cortex

The Earth's crust is intersected by faults. An earthquake occurs when blocks of rock move quickly past each other along a fault. The ensuing shaking could have potentially serious consequences for people living nearby. The famous 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused by sudden slip along the San Andreas Fault, destroyed parts of the city and killed more than 3,000 people.

The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 caused damage throughout the area. Credit: National Archives Image No. 2127357

Today, most San Franciscans are aware of the seismic threat beneath their feet, but the authors of the NSHM report point out that devastating earthquakes can also occur in the absence of a recent history of seismic activity. In 2020, a 5.7 magnitude earthquake near Magna, Utah, caught many by surprise, causing extensive damage and raising concerns about earthquake preparedness in the Salt Lake Valley.

To assess earthquake risk across the United States, the NSHM group used data on the magnitude, location, and timing of more than 130,000 cataloged seismic events. Data from past earthquakes are key to predicting the magnitude and frequency of future events along the same fault.

First, earthquakes caused by mining, wastewater injection, or other human activities have been removed from the catalog; The hazard map depicts natural hazards only. Aftershocks were also removed because they occur as a result of a mainshock and cause a particular hazard to be overrepresented.

The researchers used the resulting dataset to estimate the incidence of earthquakes across the United States. They calculated the ground-shaking strength of all earthquakes greater than 5.0, which are likely to cause devastating tremors.

A new National Earthquake Hazard Model shows the likelihood of a devastating earthquake shaking the United States within the next 100 years. Click on the image for larger view. Credit: USGS

The 2023 NSHM added 350 faults to previous models, bringing the total to 1,000 and providing a more comprehensive view of potential seismic sources.

Data collection and model creation was a collaborative effort that lasted many years. “The new 50-state national seismic hazard model for 2023 was developed with input from hundreds of scientists and engineers across the country,” said Mark Petersen, a research geophysicist at the USGS and lead author of the study. The risk model will guide policy and infrastructure decisions that help mitigate earthquake damage.

High risk in California, Alaska and Hawaii

According to NSHM, seismic hazard is highest in California, southern Alaska, and Hawaii; Some areas have a 95% chance of experiencing a devastating earthquake within a century. The estimated hazard in these cases has increased compared to previous models as a result of more complete earthquake catalogues, better fault maps, and an updated understanding of earthquakes.

Western Nevada, Utah's Wasatch Range, the Yellowstone region, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone (located at the nexus of Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Kentucky) are likely to experience strong shaking in the future.

It is worth noting that the model increases the possibility of damaging earthquakes in the Atlantic Coastal Corridor, which includes Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Although the seismic risk in the area remains generally low, the corridor is densely populated, so increased seismic risk in the area remains low overall. The danger affects a large number of people.

It is somewhat likely that about 49 million people in the United States will be affected by a devastating earthquake in the next 50 years.

Scientists calculate that about 49 million people are “somewhat likely” to experience a devastating earthquake in the next 50 years, meaning they have a 50% chance of feeling strong tremors.

The number of people with a 10% chance of feeling strong shaking (188 million) increased 66% from the previous model, largely due to increased earthquake risk in the northeastern United States.

On the other hand, the risk of a devastating earthquake for about 40% of the US population (140 million people) is less than 10%.

The release of the updated model does not mean seismologists and hazard researchers can rest on their laurels. The USGS already anticipates future updates, including the use of more regional models of faults and ground conditions, according to Petersen.

“Over time, seismologists gain a better understanding of earthquakes,” Neely said. “Seismic hazard work is iterative, and our models are constantly being improved.”

—Caroline Hassler (@carbonbasedcary), science writer

Citation: Hasler, C. (2024), US has updated earthquake hazard map, Eos, 105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EO240074. Published February 14, 2024. Text © 2024. The Authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 Unless otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission of the copyright owner is prohibited.

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