Residents of Kazakhstan's largest city learn how to live with earthquakes

ALMATY – Many residents of Kazakhstan's largest city, some 2 million people, are getting used to describing earthquakes.

If the tremor that struck Almaty in January was a long, rumbling type with a prominent aftershock, the one that struck Almaty on March 4 was shorter but more violent, and seemed somehow like a greater test of what the city is made of.

“You have to understand that the epicenter of the last earthquake in January was 300 kilometers from Almaty,” Rustambek Amrin, an official at the Emergencies Ministry, explained at a press conference on March 4. “20 seconds to reach Almaty. Today's event was 30 kilometers from Almaty.”

Amrin was explaining to reporters why sirens designed to work during a “seismic event” did not sound until minutes after the quake, which sent city residents rushing out of their apartments and soon saw the city’s roads crowded with cars.

But it was the official's view of distances that seemed most important in the wake of the 5.0 magnitude quake.

From January to March. From 300 kilometers to 30.

Almaty earthquakes are not only becoming more frequent. They are getting close to home.

suitcase. Railway station. Astana.

At least this happened at a decent hour – 11am.

The Jan. 23 earthquake, whose epicenter was in a remote area of ​​neighboring China's northwestern Xinjiang region, occurred just after midnight, when many in the city were asleep.

Since Almaty had not seen anything similar in a long time, the effect was chaotic. While no one died, dozens sought treatment for injuries, including several who jumped from the windows of apartments on the second and third floors.

Gas stations ran out of supplies as drivers lined up to stock up before driving somewhere, anywhere, to escape their homes and avoid the cold.

People gather in the street after the earthquake that struck Almaty on January 22.

This week, as in January, Kazakh social media was filled with jokes about how cold, sterile and seismically safe Astana is compared to the leafy, mountain-packed city it has replaced as the country's capital.

“Suitcase. Train station. Astana” was a popular phrase, followed by many.

Media reported that flight tickets for major airlines flying between Almaty and Astana on March 4 quickly sold out, with photos of cracked walls and other moderate damage spreading online.

Children have been sent home from schools – many of which are used as collection points – although kindergartens mostly continue to operate.

“We were in a taxi,” an elderly woman recalled the moment of the earthquake in an interview with RFE/RL's Kazakh service.

“I asked the driver: Young man, is there a problem with your gasoline or are we under fire?” He said: “Ma’am, it is an earthquake. But what can you do? We are at the mercy of fate.”

Siren sound

Kazakhstan's Emergencies Ministry said last week that 14 of its employees were subject to disciplinary measures in connection with the botched response to the January 23 earthquake. On that occasion, the city's siren system failed to work, prompting some angry residents to launch accusations of budget theft.

Nurlan Atigayev, Almaty's top emergency official, said at the time that authorities did not want to “create panic” by turning on sirens, which he said was typical for “strong earthquakes” of magnitude 5.5 and above.

This time the system was activated, even though the quake was less than 5.5 magnitude, with loudspeakers warning citizens to cut off water, electricity and gas, collect necessary documents, and leave their homes – even after many had already left.

Amrin, Atigayev's colleague, explained that the proximity of the epicenter made it impossible to sound the sirens early. He also said that the ministry plans to replace SMS earthquake notifications, some of which arrive more than half an hour after the earthquake or not at all, with “real-time” notifications in the near future.

The ministry has since predicted a “70 percent chance” that a strong earthquake will not occur in the coming days.

Disturbing doubts about Almaty's earthquake preparedness have grown in the wake of the devastating earthquake that struck parts of Turkey and Syria in February 2023, killing more than 50,000 people and injuring twice that number.

Then the conversation stopped.

But a year later, Almaty experienced two unnerving earthquakes in quick succession, although neither was as powerful as the ones that in 1887 and 1911 destroyed large parts of its previous incarnation — a modest Russian imperial fortress town called Verny.

Nowadays, Almaty has become Kazakhstan's sprawling financial center, and construction has spread in all directions, including in the mountains where the earthquake is particularly felt.

Almaty in July 2022

Like this recent quake, the epicenter of the deadly 1911 Verni quake was close to Kazakhstan's present-day border with Kyrgyzstan, a fact that has prompted Almaty-based independent seismologist Mukhtar Haidar to speak of the “awakening” of Chelyak-Chun. Kimin's mistake. (The Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, felt strong tremors on January 23, but not on March 4.)

“There is nothing good in this,” Heydarov warned in comments widely reported by Kazakh media.

But Devlet Sarsenbayev, director of the government-backed National Center for Earthquake Monitoring and Research, downplayed the importance of this proposal, considering that the coordinates of the epicenter of the earthquake indicate that it was a “seismic event separately,” noting that the earthquakes that occurred in 2015 and 1990 can be traced back to two locations: Similar area.

“Regarding [the idea] It is an awakening of Kimin's mistake, where [1911] “The Kimin earthquake happened, and this is just an assumption of one person who has nothing behind it.”

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