Satellites can predict earthquakes similar to those in Türkiye 19 days in advance

Knowing ahead of time if an earthquake is scheduled to strike can lead to better evacuation and organizational plans that can save lives. Once thought to be just a pipe dream, a new study suggests we may be closer than we think.

“Establishing earthquake early warning systems is not so far-fetched,” says Mehdi Akhundzadeh, lead author of the study.

From the University of Tehran, Professor Akhundzadeh analyzed chemical and meteorological anomalies in the months leading up to the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that devastated areas in Turkey and Syria on February 6, 2023.

Although indicators of earthquakes are known to exist, as reported by Alpha Galileo, they remain vague, if not impossible, to clearly identify. The technology and methods used do not provide a clear enough picture of the pattern that researchers can apply in all earthquake-prone areas around the world.

Is the earthquake coming? We are not looking for the right signs

However, we may not have handled the problem properly. Forget seismographs. What about satellite technology? Such as the electromagnetic seismic satellite from China, CSES-01, which is what Professor Akhundzadeh used with the European Space Agency's Swarm satellites.

These satellites provided Akhundzadeh's data on temperature anomalies and electron density throughout the Earth system, including “water vapor, methane, ozone, carbon dioxide, and AOD” present in the atmosphere. Using this data, he was able to notice a pattern.

Interestingly, he found anomalies in the lithosphere (on Earth) 12-19 days before the earthquake. About 10 to 5 days before the earthquake, most atmospheric anomalies were detected, with ionospheric anomalies appearing 5 to 1 day before the earthquake finally occurred.

“Therefore, the results of this study confirm the sequence of appearance of earthquake precursors from the lower layers of the lithosphere to the upper layers of the ionosphere.” Marks first appear on the ground and rise above the ground. Maybe we weren't looking for the right signs.

Earthquake warning systems may be on the horizon

“It is necessary to study and evaluate many earthquakes (statistical analysis),” admits Professor Akhundzadeh. However, this study seems to indicate that using a variety of remote sensing satellites can help us study and determine the forerunners of earthquakes two weeks in advance.

It is known that the city of Haicheng in China was evacuated weeks before a 7.3-magnitude earthquake due to abnormal animal behavior along with other signs, so even if we can't fully determine what's going on before the earthquake apparently hits, like this study. It indicates that there are changes occurring through the Earth system that we can actually take advantage of using satellites.

Akhundzadeh said: “It is also necessary to mention that before a strong earthquake occurred in Turkey, the solar and geomagnetic indicators showed abnormal variations, which is necessary to investigate the hypothesis of the relationship between solar and geomagnetic activities and the impact.” The occurrence of large earthquakes in this study area in future studies.

We hope that this study will open the way for future studies. It seems we should focus our attention on satellites to study earthquake patterns.

“The possibility of using different classical and intelligent algorithms in analyzing time series of earthquake precursors has also made it possible to detect complex and non-linear anomalies,” Akhundzadeh concludes.

“As a result, we can hope to create earthquake warning systems with low uncertainty in the future.”

The study was published in the Journal of Applied Geodesy.

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About the editor

Maria Mocerino Originally from Los Angeles, Maria Mocerino has been published in Business Insider, The Irish Examiner, The Rogue Mag, the Chacrona Institute for Psychedelic Plant Medicines, and now Intriguing Engineering.

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