Earthquake or secret underground nuclear test?

At 10:45 pm on Saturday, the Seismological Center at Tehran University announced that a 4.4-magnitude earthquake shook the city of Aradan in the Iranian Semnan Province, and people also felt the tremors in parts of eastern Tehran.

The epicenter of the quake, which occurred at a depth of 12 kilometers underground, was recorded at 35.42 degrees north latitude and 52.78 degrees east latitude.

Hours after the news broke, social media users began speculating that the Tehran regime had attempted to conduct its first underground nuclear test, likely as a deterrent measure against Israeli attacks on its territory.

The speculation came as Islamic Republic officials and Revolutionary Guard commanders repeatedly threaten that if economic, political and military pressures on the country intensify, Tehran will change its military defense doctrine — a change that would require amending the Iranian leader's fatwa on the illegitimacy of nuclear weapons. .

However, the Noor News website, which unofficially serves as the main media outlet for the Islamic Republic's National Security Council, dismissed the nuclear speculation as “rumours” and once again stressed that the nuclear tests are inconsistent with Iran's nuclear and defense doctrine.

However, the idea that Iran would never conduct such a test without announcing a policy change does not necessarily stand up to scrutiny.

Does Iran have any secret testing sites?

In 2019, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank, issued a report stating that Iran had begun a program to build underground nuclear test sites, known as the “Field Project.”

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs imposed sanctions on the institution for five years on charges of “producing and spreading lies, encouraging and consulting, exerting pressure, and carrying out a negative propaganda campaign against the Islamic Republic with the aim of playing an effective role in imposing and tightening economic sanctions.”

According to its 2019 report, its researchers identified “the potential location (in the southeastern Semnan region) where underground non-nuclear explosive tests were conducted in 2003 as part of the development of seismic methods to measure the yield of an underground nuclear explosive.”

This raises the possibility that the earthquake reported in Semnan was linked to Tehran's first nuclear test.

Related to

While Iran previously acknowledged the existence of the Imam Khomeini Space Center and the missile headquarters southeast of Semnan, the site is more than 100 kilometers away from the epicenter.

However, some social media users continue to speculate that Iran may have an undeclared underground nuclear facility in Semnan province, and would prefer to use it as a test site rather than conduct it at a well-known facility like Natanz.

Tehran has consistently failed to disclose its nuclear activities to the International Atomic Energy Agency. At the same time, Iran is an earthquake-prone country, and such earthquakes are neither uncommon nor strange.

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