Türkiye's earthquakes displaced the Earth's crust by hundreds of miles sciences

The earthquakes that struck southeastern Türkiye in the early hours of February 6, 2023, followed by a second earthquake at noon the next day, have prompted scientists to reevaluate what they know about seismology. According to research published in the journal Science on Thursday, these two earthquakes displaced the Earth's crust hundreds of miles from their centers, affecting not only the friction zone but also shifting the entire Anatolian plate westward. Although the movement was only one centimeter (0.4 inch), this represented nearly half the average annual drift of the plate. For seismologists, the events went beyond what could have been expected based on current models used to predict seismic hazards.

Turkey is particularly vulnerable to earthquakes, as it lies on top of the Anatolian Plate, surrounded by the Eurasian Plate to the north, the Arabian and African Plates to the south, and the Eurasian and Aegean Plates to the west. The Earth's crust, which floats on the mantle, is divided into several tectonic plates that either move apart, converge, or slide over each other, which causes earthquakes. They tend to occur along fault lines at plate boundaries. The February earthquakes occurred along the East Anatolia Fault. Despite Türkiye's long and tragic history with earthquakes, there have been no major seismic events along this fault line or in the southeast for more than a century. Most recent disasters have occurred near the junction with the Eurasian plate.

It is possible that the long period of relative calm allowed pressure to build in the area, which could explain the enormous strength of the 2023 earthquake, one measuring 7.8 and the other 7.5. The impact was catastrophic, with nearly 60,000 people killed, countless injured, and widespread destruction of infrastructure. However, what surprised scientists most was how far these two earthquakes displaced the Earth's crust.

“Normally, we can model earthquake-related displacements using elastic models that take into account Earth's curvature and fault geometry,” says Philippe Vernant, a geologist at the University of Montpellier and co-author of the scientific study. “What is surprising about this earthquake sequence is that the far-field displacement observed on the Anatolian plate is very high.”

Seismic maps are based on isolated earthquakes, but what we see is that this is not the case: past events are interconnected with future events, either accelerating or delaying subsequent earthquakes.

Julian García Mayordomo, Spanish Geological and Mining Institute

Vernant and his colleagues relied on data from a network of GNSS (Geographical Positioning Systems) sensors that use three main constellations of satellites: the American Global Positioning System (GPS), the European Galileo system, and the Russian GLONASS system. They discovered that the Earth's crust moved up to 700 kilometers (about 435 miles) from the epicenters of the earthquakes. This is beyond the scope of traditional seismic models, which usually track waves originating at the epicenter. The recent use of GNSS systems in seismology allows scientists to detect changes in elevation and location of terrain around the epicenter of an earthquake. A recent study using data from thousands of GPS devices even suggested that large earthquakes could be predicted.

The second important finding is that this displacement was not limited to the fault zone, which is usually expected during an earthquake. Instead, the entire Anatolian plate moved 1 centimeter (0.4 in) to the west. “A centimeter is not much compared to four to five metres [13 to 16 feet] From slipping into error. One centimeter in a place where no displacement should be observed is a very big deal, explains Vernant, an expert in faults and seismic activity.

Adding to the complexity is that the Arabian Plate – which forms the southern part of the rift where the earthquakes occurred – has not shown any appreciable distant displacement, despite it being the area where much destruction and loss of life has occurred, especially in Syria. Vernant points out that “the Anatolian plate moved more than expected, while the Arabian plate barely moved.” As a result, Asia Minor is expanding and being pulled towards the Aegean Plate, rather than being pushed by the Arabian Plate.

“I always find myself surprised when I compare this to geopolitics: no matter what the Europeans do, Anatolia is gravitating towards Europe at a rate of about 24 mm per year,” Vernant jokes.

Juan Soto, a professor of structural geology and tectonics at the University of Texas at Austin, confirms that the westward movement of the Anatolian plate toward the subduction zone of the Hellenic Arc was already known. “What's new about this study is that it analyses, using satellite data, how all the deformation is distributed over the surface. Almost everything was known about the two large earthquakes that occurred last year — how they were generated, how deformation was distributed along faults, the origin of the earthquakes — but What's new is that they found that the deformation not only extended along the faults, but also affected the interior of the plates.

Soto highlights that one of the study's main contributions is its discovery that the entire plate undergoes deformation and accumulates energy, which is then released during large earthquakes. “This does not happen with every fault or every earthquake,” he points out. “These earthquakes generate a huge amount of energy. This energy is dispersed and distributed and causes other areas of the plate to move and continue to break.

Buildings and infrastructure that had withstood the impact of the first earthquake collapsed with the second quake a few hours later. In a photo taken on February 16, 2023, the devastation witnessed in the city of Hatay in southern Türkiye, Burak Kara (Getty Images)

This research opens the door to a troubling possibility: Earthquakes occurring on the Southern Rift could destabilize the already unstable Northern Rift, which has been responsible for most earthquakes in Asia Minor over the past century. “The average annual displacement of the plate is 24 mm per year westward compared to the Eurasian plate,” notes Philippe Vernant. How will this affect the timeline for the next earthquake in the Sea of ​​Marmara [northwest of the Anatolian plate]Whether it is presented or delayed remains a mystery.”

“For hundreds of kilometers no movement occurs – or at least it shouldn't,” points out Julian García Mayordomo, an expert in earthquake geology at the Spanish Geological and Mining Institute (IGME). This “shouldn't” is what makes the findings of the two earthquakes that hit Türkiye in 2023 so important. He adds: “Traditional models fail to explain such large displacements so far.”

According to García Mayordomo, one of the main contributions of this study is the understanding that “what happened 20 years ago can affect future seismic activity, although we still don't know how.” He continues: “Seismic maps are based on isolated earthquakes, but what we see is that this is not the case: past events are interconnected with future events, either accelerating or delaying subsequent earthquakes.”

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