Former Clarence Thomas aide warns Trump could cause 'constitutional earthquake'

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John Yoo, a former clerk for conservative Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and a former deputy assistant attorney general, warned in a podcast this week that Donald Trump could cause a “constitutional earthquake” with some of his proposed plans once he takes office.

The legal scholar and law professor at the University of California, Berkeley, hinted at the possibility of Trump withdrawing from key treaties with international partners during an interview that aired Monday on Puck's podcast, Somebody's Gotta Win With Tara Palmeri. Yu said the US withdrawal attempt from NATO would likely be challenged all the way to the Supreme Court.

Newsweek reached out to Trump's transition team on Wednesday via email for comment.

Why does it matter?

During his first administration, Trump said in 2018 that NATO's defense spending target should double to 4 percent. He now reportedly wants to increase it to 5 percent. While campaigning in the run-up to the 2024 elections, he also accused NATO of relying too heavily on American contributions.

The president-elect has also repeatedly hinted that he might be open to the United States withdrawing from NATO. He returned to the topic earlier this month during an appearance on NBC's Meet the Press, when he suggested that the United States could consider leaving NATO if members did not increase their defense spending.

President-elect Donald Trump speaks during AmericaFest held at Turning Point USA on December 22 in Phoenix. Legal scholar John Yoo said in a podcast broadcast this week that Trump could cause a “constitutional earthquake” if he seeks to… President-elect Donald Trump speaks during Turning Point USA's AmericaFest on Dec. 22 in Phoenix. Legal scholar John Yoo said in a podcast this week that Trump could cause a “constitutional earthquake” if he follows through with some of his proposed plans, such as withdrawing from NATO. More Rebecca Noble/Getty Images What to Know

NATO was founded in 1949 to provide collective military security against the Soviet Union. One of the key elements of the international treaty is Article 5, which states that “Any armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be deemed to be an attack against all of them.” The article requires all members to attend to “collective defense” and assist the state or states that have been attacked.

With Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO, many of the alliance's European members have growing concerns that Moscow may target them next. Russian leaders and media pundits have routinely suggested that the Kremlin may turn its sights toward NATO members, especially as they continue to provide military aid to Kiev.

In December 2023, Congress passed the National Defense Authorization Act aimed at preventing any president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without Senate approval or an act of Congress. While most Republican lawmakers continue to support NATO, as do most Democrats, 46 Republican members of the House of Representatives backed a 2023 effort to defund U.S. support for the alliance.

What people say

“The Supreme Court has never ruled, but lower courts have said presidents can break treaties. But that's never happened with a really important treaty like NATO,” Yu responded to a question from Palmieri about whether Trump could withdraw from NATO without Congress. Congress tried to stop them, and I think Congress tried to put appropriations restrictions on defense bills saying you can't withdraw from NATO, and that would spark a massive constitutional fight…. If Trump were to really follow suit by… “It would cause an unconstitutional earthquake.”

Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene last year introduced legislation to withdraw the United States from NATO, saying at the time: “They are not a reliable partner, and their defense spending should be paid for by American citizens. For the most part, they are not A trusted partner. In the past decade, Germany has contributed only about 1% of its GDP to finance NATO commitments, while the United States pays about 4% of its GDP to defend NATO countries.

“The most successful military alliance in human history has led the free world through dangerous challenges, from the nuclear-armed Cold War to ferocious terrorist attacks to a new chapter of multipolar competition,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said in July.

“The number one guiding factor for Trump's foreign policy is what is in America's best interest,” James Carafano, a senior adviser to the president and the E.W. Richardson Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told Newsweek in November. “There is no scenario where America is better off.” He will be better off without a strong NATO and a free, independent Ukraine, and he will seek to achieve both.

Why does it matter?

It is not clear how Trump will deal with the United States' relationship with NATO after entering the White House. Many analysts believe the president-elect aims largely to pressure members to increase their funding for collective defense, as he did with some success during his first term.

At the same time, many fear that Trump is serious about withdrawing from the coalition, as some Republicans would like him to do.

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