We may finally know a fundamental mechanism behind the largest earthquakes on our planet

We are learning more about earthquake inducers all the time, but there is still a lot to learn about how these seismic transitions work. Now, geologists believe they have identified a major mechanism behind some of the largest earthquakes on the planet.

Huge earthquakes occur in subduction zones, where one tectonic plate is pushed down below another. They are especially common around the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and can also trigger massive tsunamis.

A new study suggests that slow, gradual motion slipping deep into the subduction zone could be key to understanding how massive earthquakes occur, and possibly improving prediction models to better predict them in the future.

The researchers say slow slip events (SSEs) do not occur in every subduction zone, but that they can affect how pressure builds up underground. Crucially, they transfer energy in different directions to powerful earthquakes, and they don’t necessarily follow the movements of the plates themselves.

“Usually, when an earthquake occurs, we find that movement is in the opposite direction to how the plates move, creating a buildup of slip deficit,” says geologist Kevin Furlong of Pennsylvania State University.

“For these slow-sliding earthquakes, the direction of motion is directly downward in the direction of gravity rather than the directions of plate motion.”

Using data from high-resolution GPS stations, Furlong and colleagues analyzed movements along the Cascadia Subduction Zone (stretching from Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California) over a period of several years.

Map of the Cascadia Subduction Zone. (Prince Sultan University News)

A magnitude 9 earthquake struck Cascadia in 1700, and since then very small attacks have been falling below the subduction zone, moving short distances at a slow rate. The researchers say they are like “a swarm of events,” and the pattern matches similar data recording from New Zealand.

The team suggests that although these earthquakes occur many miles below the surface, their movements could affect the timing and behavior of massive earthquakes. These small events happen every year or two, but they could lead to something more serious.

“There are subduction zones that do not contain slow-slip events, so we don’t have direct measurements of how the deeper part of the subduction plate moves,” Furlong says.

SSEs were first discovered by geologists about 20 years ago, and only recently were GPS devices sensitive enough to capture their movements in detail – 35 kilometers (22 miles) underground in this case.

The results of the new study, which the researchers describe as “highly unexpected”, will help models of future earthquakes. It is possible, for example, that some of the pressure induced by plate movement in subduction zones could be released by SSEs deep in the earth.

Moreover, knowing the direction of forces that future earthquakes will trigger is crucial in planning them. These natural disasters can be very unpredictable, so any information that can be gathered in advance is invaluable.

“Most importantly, we don’t know what triggered the great earthquake in this case,” says geologist Kirsty Mackenzie, of Pennsylvania State University. “Every time we add new data on the physics of a problem, it becomes an important component.”

The research has been published in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems.

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