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A major seismic event in the Cascadia subduction zone could strand most residents of the Pacific Northwest Coast for weeks wherever they were when the earthquake and tsunami struck.

At about 9 p.m. on January 26, 1700, an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.7 to 9.2 struck land across coastal villages from Northern California to Washington. The marine earthquake resulted in a tsunami, which led to a series of flood waves to the coast throughout the night, which caused the greatest damage and loss of life.

Scientists have determined that historically such events occur in the Pacific Northwest every 500 years, on average, with events as small as 8 events every 200-300 years. According to the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, “Odds over the next 50 years range from about one in three for a scale 8 in southern Oregon to about one in eight for a scale 9 that covers the entire subduction zone.”

“We don’t know when it will happen, but we know it will eventually,” said Sue Greaves, Lincoln County School District Safety Coordinator. If it happens when students and staff are in school, they will face the same challenge as people in homes and businesses – surviving an extended period of time in whatever is there. Because of expected damage to inland roads, it will likely be weeks before outside help reaches the coast, and local damage could isolate residents by neighborhood and block.

“We can really expect that basic services and basic needs are going to be really difficult. Roads will be closed, water systems will not work, communications will not work, we will not be able to go to the store to buy food,” Graves said.

Graves holds a master’s degree in Security Studies from the Naval Postgraduate School, and in her spare time from the area, she contracts with other entities as an expert advisor. She recently authored a “Community Disaster Cache Planning Guide for Earthquakes and Tsunamis” for the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries.

The text is a comprehensive treatment of what to store and how to store it in preparation for disaster, and the best practices that Graves has implemented in local schools over the past eight years.

In 2013, the Lincoln County Board of Commissioners adjusted its qualifications for county disaster preparedness grants at Graves’ request, allowing schools to apply. I used a $2,500 grant to set up school disaster bunkers, one in each district initially, and now there is one near nearly every school in the district. A new cache has been added this year at Yaquina View Elementary School.

Graves said Survival Kits are a collaborative effort between schools, fire departments, police departments and the cities in which they are located. They held a work party in early May with North Lincoln County Fire and Rescue, Lincoln City, and Oregon Coast Community College to stock and update bunkers at Taft Schools.

Supplies are stored in 20-foot steel Conex containers, stowed according to the number of staff and students in each school. Not all of them are uniformly outfitted, as funding for the project has varied over the years, and Graves said they’re still working toward some show-level goals.

The bunkers have everything to meet immediate human needs – medical supplies, Mylar blankets, search and rescue tools, warm clothing, tents and tarps, food (ready-to-eat meals and lifeboards), hygiene products and water.

The latter is the most important and the most difficult to stock, Graves said. FEMA recommends that coastal residents keep water for two weeks indoors to prepare for the Cascadia event, although the agency believes only a small majority have a three-day supply.

“Water is hard to store in a bunker,” Graves said. “We store it in a 55-gallon barrel, add a softener that makes it last five years, and aim to save about three days per person.” At Oceanlake Elementary School, for example, they have 16 55-gallon drums, which is about four days of drinking water for the school’s 450 staff and students.

To supplement this supply, they also have individual water filter straws for each person. Straws are about the size of a finger and can be used to safely drink from a natural source such as a stream (not a tsunami-polluted source) or rainwater. Graves said they also hope to be able to salvage pots from school kitchens to boil water for safe drinking, and will soon purchase a gravity-fed Lifestraw Community filter, which can filter large amounts of water without electricity.

Graves praised the contribution of local emergency agencies and municipalities, noting that the bunkers are a potential lifeline for everyone. “If the school is not in session, emergency agencies can access these supplies to meet the needs of the community,” she said.

The District’s Disaster Preparedness Grant remains the primary funding for the project, although it has added other sources and has also benefited from the generosity of community members. When a woman learned that Newport’s stashes needed hats, she offered to tie them and asked Graves how many were needed. She was not afraid to answer – 2000 – and organized a group that completed the task over the course of a year.

Those who wish to contribute by purchasing a specific item or simply donating cash can contact Graves at [email protected].

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