California vs. UK: How are COVID cases and vaccines compared?

California’s overall pandemic trend is especially Decrease in hospitalization Located in Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area, Central Valley And that Northern countryside Stay under terrible tension.

However, as some health authorities warn, there is no guarantee that improvements will continue.

In late July, Britain celebrated that it seemed so recovery The unique Delta Surge improved about 6 weeks before California began to reduce its own cases.But then the number of incidents increased again in the UK

“The note here is from the UK, which had a very similar pattern and soared during the summer … this is now seen, but then recovered again.” Said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist and infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco. Said Recently at the campus forum.

“We need to be careful that this doesn’t happen here,” Rutherford said. “We are at risk of this happening, and some coordinated efforts will be needed to prevent it from happening.”

Vaccines still have a beneficial effect in the UK. The country reports about 36,000 cases per day, both a peak of about 67,000 new cases per day during the winter surge and a summer peak of about 48,000 cases per day in late July. It is below.

Still, the latest UK figures show a rise from the midsummer lows of about 22,000 per day in early August.

The daily death toll is increasing in the UK, but still much less than during the winter surge. At its peak in winter, Britain reported about 1,700 deaths a day in a week, but fell to near zero by the end of spring. According to Johns Hopkins University, the country currently reports about 140 deaths a day per week.

California is already at a disadvantage compared to the United Kingdom. The Golden State boasts one of the highest immunization rates in the United States, but still lags behind the UK shot record. Among Californians of all ages 58% are fully vaccinated, While in the UK 65% are fully vaccinated..

The latest model from the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington shows how uncertain the future of California is.

Currently, California reports an average of 100 COVID-19 1 day deathSignificantly worse than the 20-30 deaths aggregated one day before the summer, but much better than the approximately 550 deaths per day recorded during the peak of the pandemic. Winter surge..

In the most likely scenario, daily mortality is expected to remain stable if the vaccine continues to be distributed at the current pace, says the laboratory model. The more people wear masks, the less daily deaths will occur.

However, daily deaths occur when all vaccinated people stop wearing masks and the variants spread even faster than expected. Can reach 500 per day By mid-November, according to the laboratory’s model.

In the UK experience, we cannot be satisfied, said Dr. Ashish Jha, Dean of Brown University School of Medicine. Tweet..

Weekly coronavirus case rates in California continue to improve.

Los Angeles County did not report case numbers on Saturday or Sunday due to planned processing system upgrades, but the trend towards weekends appeared to be consistent with a continued decline in cases. rice field.

Between August 27 and Friday, new weekly coronavirus cases were 36% in the San Francisco Bay Area, 28% in Southern California, 27% in the Greater Sacramento area, 18% in the San Joaquin Valley, and in the northern rural areas. It decreased by 15%. California.

Nevertheless, coronavirus infection levels remain high and COVID-19 hospitalization levels remain high.

Some experts say it may be wise to implement emergency COVID-19 measures, such as indoor mask orders, if there are more than 5 COVID-19 hospitalizations for every 100,000 residents. Stated. The Bay Area rate is 11. Southern California, 15; Greater Sacramento Area, 26; Northern California Countryside, 31; Los Angeles Times analysis, San Joaquin Valley, 35 years old.

Rural hospitals in the Central Valley and Northern California are still under considerable threat.

In Del Norte County, on the northern border of California, half The percentage of patients admitted to major Crescent City hospitals is COVID-19.

In the San Joaquin Valley, a large area of ​​more than 4 million people extending from Stockton to Bakersfield, available intensive care unit capacity remains less than 10% for 12 consecutive days, Fresno County officials said. warning They are so overwhelmed that they may have to distribute medical care — choosing someone to receive lifesaving measures.

The Fresno County ICU has been particularly crowded in the last few weeks and is filled with 80-93 patients. This number has not been seen since January. Hospitals also take care of non-COVID patients, which is very crowded and authorities are forced to transport critically ill patients to Sacramento and the Bay Area, about 170 miles away by car.

Some experts have expressed hope that vaccination obligations, or shot or test requirements, will increase vaccination coverage.Last week, President Biden Said Employees of companies with more than 100 workers must be vaccinated or tested weekly.

In Los Angeles County, public health director Barbara Ferrer said the pace of vaccination needs to be much higher than it is today. However, she expressed hope that the following targeted vaccination orders would help: Children over 12 years old in Los Angeles Public schools will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by January when they enter campus.

“We have a duty to really stop the continuation of the pandemic, and vaccination is the most powerful tool we have,” Feller said.

In California, Governor Gavin Newsom’s administration OrderedWith a few exceptions, healthcare professionals must be fully vaccinated by September 30th. California school employees are also vaccinated or Weekly test..

Ongoing research continues to demonstrate the power of vaccination.recently study The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has announced that unvaccinated people in areas affected by delta surges are more likely to be infected with the coronavirus than those who have been vaccinated. It was shown to be / 2 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID and 10 times more likely to be hospitalized. 19, and 11 times more likely to die.