Editor’s Note: State is relax Limitation of social distance, people desperately want to meet friends and family, go to restaurants and let children play day. Shopping for groceries is also fun. But how can you keep it safe? Here, an epidemiologist who is immunocompromised himself describes some decisions.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) finally released new guidelines business, bar And school We are considering resuming. While following these guidelines should help, I am frustrated by the lack of clearer and more concise communication about the risk of infection. And without strict guidelines, it’s up to us to minimize our own risks and those of everyone around us.
This is mainly because there are still many things scientists and doctors do not know about the new coronavirus. The pace of new research on the virus, SARS-CoV-2, and the virus-caused disease COVID-19 is truly amazing. There may be conflicts between science and the needs of the moment. A prime example is the confusion over the use of face masks, while there is a global shortage of personal protective equipment.
And the pattern of illness is very localized. The Michigan outbreak looks different from Iowa, which is different from Colorado. Even within the state, the outbreak is very clear. Occurrences I have experienced Southeast Michigan It’s not like my grandparents are experiencing two hours north of here. As a researcher, I am studying herd immunity and vaccine efficacy. We’ll tell you that there are ways to minimize your risk if you start a new normal, but slow, normal life.
As a survivor of leukemia and bone marrow transplant, I High risk population, So my risk calculation is probably different from yours. Once my state begins to relax restrictions, I will continue to limit interactions with others as much as possible. Here’s what you can think of.
read more: Should I wear a mask? Experts sort out the confusion
What is the risk of infection?
How SARS-CoV-2 works Send There is still a mystery from person to person. It certainly can be sent on a large scale Breath splash, Like what is produced when we cough or sneeze. Evidence also suggests that Smaller aerosol particles, Can spread during talking and breathing and can lead to infection. There are several evidence You can infect the virus before symptoms appear, Highest virus load Near the beginning of the disease.
Putting all this together, the most dangerous thing you can do is to get in close contact with the sick person. So advice about self-separation If you feel sick Very important.
It is also becoming clear that viruses are most effectively transmitted indoors. There, close contact and inadequate ventilation between infected people is more likely. Especially high risk of infection Household contact.. Efficient transmission in dense closed spaces Nursing home, Food processing plant, Prison and prison Cruise ship. On the contrary, the risk of infection Lower Outdoors.
How can I minimize the risk?
The most dangerous thing is to be in the crowd indoors with the sick person, and the least risky behavior is to stay outdoors in small groups and avoid the sick person.
I think it helps explain a simple model of an infectious disease. The rate of new infections over a period of time is called “infectivity” and depends on several factors. Probability of transmission when contacted; number of infected in population.
This means that the ability to prevent new infections depends on two factors. That is, to reduce the frequency with which people come into contact with each other, or to reduce the likelihood of transmission from contact.
The goal of home-based measures was to reduce the contact rate. For all accounts, this is still the most effective tool to prevent new infections.
Other non-pharmaceutical interventions such as face masks and hand hygiene reduce effective contact, or the likelihood of the virus being transmitted if there is contact. Universal masking Perhaps Particularly effective You cannot rely on symptomatic screening to identify cases of infection.
Or maybe you have heard Layer of Swiss cheese.. There may be some intervention (Swiss cheese slices), but none are perfect (holes). But when you stack the slices, the holes begin to fill. In a similar fashion, repeated imperfect interventions can slow down transmission.
What does that mean?
I’ve read a quote about a cold from Australian virologist Ian Mackay. The same probably applies to COVID-19.
But that is not realistic. Authorities should borrow ideas from HIV prevention and focus on clear messages Harm reduction.. Without home orders, we all have to decide for themselves how much risk we can tolerate.
I’m a survivor of leukemia, so take that into account. You also need to consider your medical history. When not isolated, layer as much Swiss cheese as possible to minimize risk. Wear a mask and stay outdoors, 6 to 10 feet away from others.
I think these are generally common sense guidelines for everyone.
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