Health
How the 1918 influenza pandemic ended, and what that means for COVID-19
- Viruses that cause pandemics are often less mutated and less life-threatening.
- The 1918 influenza pandemic lasted about 18 months and ended after people were exposed to the virus or had less life-threatening threats.
- With the new variants, there are new questions about where the pandemic is heading and whether an annual booster or modified vaccine is needed.
Historically, most pandemics last for two and a half to three and a half years.
Over time, pandemic viruses usually mutate and evolve into endemic diseases that circulate at lower, more manageable levels.
This is the case for the influenza strain behind the 1918 influenza pandemic, and some virologists say this may be happening with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. I want it.
Early reports indicate that Omicron variants can cause mild infections. This may be due to the buildup of immunity around the world and its unique collection of mutations.
Still, it’s too early to know for sure how the COVID-19 pandemic will occur.
Experts generally believe that the virus mutates and is less at risk, but there is no 100% guarantee that this is currently happening with the coronavirus.
Moreover, 2021 is not like 1918, and currently accessible vaccines, global travel, data, and treatments will have a significant impact on this pandemic trajectory.
“Because of the large number of asymptomatic infected people with COVID-19 infection, it is possible that we cannot fully understand how the virus evolves due to social and environmental pressures on the virus (mask, distance, remote work, etc.). There is sex. ” Dr. Rodney E. Rohde, A virologist and professor of clinical laboratory science at Texas State University.
Within a few years, the flu strain behind the 1918 pandemic was less life-threatening.
Dr. Keith ArmitageA medical professor in the Department of Infectious Diseases at Case Western Reserve University states that this is likely a combination of herd immunity and viral mutations causing less severe illness.
The 1918 influenza strain never disappears, but rather continues to mutate, and its version continues to circulate to this day.
“Given how the virus behaves biologically, the reason the virus lives is that it replicates and spreads, and there is really no benefit to the virus killing the host,” Armitage said.
What the virus wants to do is infect and spread the host. That way, it can infect and continue to spread to another host.
As part of this process, respiratory viruses are often mutated and less toxic, reducing serious health problems.
“The 1918 influenza virus eventually mutated until the death toll was low, again about three years later. In an ongoing variant of SARS-CoV-2. It’s very likely that you’re witnessing this process, “said Rohde, who said there was too much uncertainty to know for sure.
There is much more data on the COVID-19 pandemic than the 1918 influenza pandemic.
Also, in addition to vaccines and treatments, there are tools to fight more coronaviruses than people did in 1918, such as data on who is at greatest risk for COVID-19.
However, the data is continuous and rapidly changing, Rohde said.
With the new variants, there are new questions about where the pandemic is heading and whether an annual booster or modified vaccine is needed.
“If the pandemic doesn’t go away, we’re hoping for new mutants that are highly contagious but cause less clinical disease,” Armitage said.
And among these mutations, less virulent strains, innate immunity, and vaccine-induced immunity, we will eventually get out of this.
It’s unclear if it’s Omicron or a new variant that we haven’t met yet.
“Of course, I want to be faster than slower,” Armitage said.
Historically, most pandemics end within a few years as the virus mutates to less virulent pathogens and the population builds immunity. This is what happened to the influenza strain behind the 1918 influenza pandemic, and many virologists want it to happen with the coronavirus.
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