Comprehensive study reveals new coronavirus pandemic reverses growth in global life expectancy

In a recent study published in lancetThe group of researchers focused on changes in mortality rates and life expectancy, including the significant impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, across 204 countries and 811 regional locations, from 1950 to 2021. We investigated the world's demographic trends up to the present.

study: Global age-sex-specific mortality rates, life expectancy, population estimates, and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 204 countries and regions and 811 local cities from 1950 to 2021: for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Comprehensive demographic analysis. Image credit: Lightspring / Shutterstock

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The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of understanding demographic trends to inform public health policy and prepare for future challenges. Analyzing mortality rates, life expectancy, and population growth provides insight into health risks, facilitates resource allocation, and guides development planning. The 2021 Global Disease, Injury and Risk Factor Survey (GBD) strengthens this understanding by incorporating pandemic data, providing a detailed view of global health from 1950 to 2021. Further research is needed to continually update and refine our understanding of demographic trends. We discuss their impact on global health, particularly in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and new health challenges.

About research

The GBD 2021 iteration uses the latest data and methodology to update demographic estimates, refine the GBD 2019 methodology, and incorporate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This comprehensive approach includes estimating birth and death rates, adjusting for the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and pandemic-related excess deaths, and accounting for demographic discontinuities such as wars and natural disasters. This included refining estimates of population size. In compliance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER), this study used Python, Stata, and R for statistical analysis and utilized extensive data sources.

A key innovation is the estimation of excess mortality due to COVID-19, defined as observed and predicted all-cause mortality for 2020-2021, capturing both direct and indirect effects of the pandemic. It was an estimate. The study employed a Bayesian hierarchical model for population projections, adjusted for new data and the impact of the pandemic, and covered 204 countries and territories, including local analyzes for 21 countries. Through uncertainty analysis involving thousands of data acquisitions, GBD 2021 details global demographic changes and the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting health, demographic trends and key global trends. highlights the dynamic interplay between events.

research result

The study provides comprehensive insights into civil registration and vital statistics, highlighting global, regional and national trends in demographic indicators, including key findings on the integrity of death registration systems. Masu. From 1975 to 2016, the completeness of global death registrations improved significantly, peaking at 61.1%, but declined slightly thereafter due to reporting delays. In particular, significant progress has been made in China and India, with peak completion rates of 71.2% and 80.1%, respectively. However, progress outside these countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, has been more gradual, with peak completion rates barely reaching 8.7%.

Lifetime all-cause mortality for women (A) and men (B) globally and in the GBD superregion (1950–2021). Mortality rate is expressed as the number of deaths per 1000 population. Critical discontinuities are indicated by the following letters: A=HIV epidemic. B=Conflict in the Middle East. C=1971 war and genocide in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. D=War and genocide in Cambodia in the 1970s. E=1994 Rwandan genocide. F=Earthquake that occurred in Haiti in 2010. G = famine from 1959 to 1961; GBD = Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factors Study.

From 1950 to 2019, the global age-standardized all-cause mortality rate declined significantly from 1980.5 to 736.1 per 100,000 population, reflecting a decline of 62.8%. Despite the overall improvement, the age group 15-39 years shows different mortality trends due to several mortality shocks such as war, HIV epidemic, and natural disasters, with a clear impact on mortality among men. Ta. The COVID-19 pandemic has reversed the downward trend in mortality rates, particularly among people aged 15 and over, highlighting the significant impact the pandemic is having on global health.

Registration completion varied widely by region, with significant improvements in Asia, but slower progress in other regions. The study also details how the number of deaths from all causes has increased over time, reflecting population growth and aging. Remarkably, under-5 mortality rates have continued to decline during the pandemic, confirming continued progress in child health.

Life expectancy trends have steadily increased globally from 1950 to 2019, with life expectancy at birth increasing by 22.7 years. However, the pandemic led to significant declines in life expectancy in all regions, with different impacts across countries and regions. The study estimated global excess deaths due to the pandemic in 2020 and 2021 at 5.89 million and 9.97 million, respectively, with Bulgaria and Lesotho having the highest excess mortality rates.

Analysis of life expectancy against socio-demographic index (SDI) showed that higher SDI levels were generally associated with longer life expectancy. However, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality highlights that increasing SDI levels are not consistently correlated with decreasing excess mortality, and the impact of the pandemic on pandemic outcomes in different regions highlights that increasing SDI levels are not consistently correlated with decreasing excess mortality. It shows a complex interplay of influencing factors.

Global distribution of age-standardized excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic for 2020 and 2021 combined. Mortality rate is expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000 population. Excess mortality rates are negative in countries and regions where the number of deaths is lower than expected.

The world's population continues to grow, reaching 7.89 billion in 2021, with most of the growth concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Notably, the age structure of the global population has transitioned to an aging population, with many countries experiencing a significant increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 and over.