Key Point
- There were hopes Australia had reached a “milestone” of a week with zero deaths from coronavirus.
- However, new data shows that deaths were recorded during that period.
- Experts say a new wave of coronavirus infections is “inevitable.”
Hopes that Australia had reached a “critical” milestone in the pandemic have been dashed after new data revealed the number of coronavirus-related deaths in a week that was believed to be zero.
Department of Health and Aged Care figures released on Thursday date back to January 2022, just over two years after the coronavirus pandemic was declared, and the number of deaths reached on February 29 this year. It showed that the moving 7-day average was zero. It rose to 1 on March 3rd, but returned to zero two days later.
But new data released Friday shows the average number of deaths was six on February 29 and five on March 3.
This highlights that there has been a wave of deaths related to COVID-19, but they are decreasing over time.
New data released by the Department of Health and Aged Care on Friday showed that COVID-19-related deaths have been recorded in a period that was thought to be zero. sauce: Supplied / Health and Elderly Care Department
Hassan Vally, associate professor of epidemiology at Deakin University, called the zero figure a “significant milestone” in a statement distributed by the Australian Science Media Center. He said the threat posed by COVID-19 to Australians had diminished, but warned against complacency.
Sanjaya Senanayake, an infectious disease expert and associate professor at the Australian National University, said the results were “great news but not unexpected”.
But not all experts were convinced.
James Wood, an infectious disease modeler and associate professor at the University of New South Wales, said the data was encouraging, but he did not believe it was accurate.
“The near real-time reporting system for death reporting has all but stopped working and we now have to rely on slower ABS reporting, which tends to occur with a lag of about two months,” he said. .
The Department of Health and Aged Care has also warned that death data reporting from states and territories may be delayed “particularly over the past two weeks”.
Why is the number of deaths from COVID-19 decreasing?
The number of deaths and hospitalizations due to COVID-19 does seem to be on the decline, but Professor Paul Griffin, an infectious disease physician and clinical microbiologist at the University of Queensland, says this is “not a coincidence”. Stated.
“It's a combination of factors,” he says.
“We obviously have vaccines and recently updated vaccines, and we also have antiviral drugs, both of which we can provide early to high-risk populations and help people who are hospitalized with severe disease. be.
“And, of course, the other factor is that most people have been exposed at least once, if not many times. It's not a substitute for vaccination. But there's an element of natural immunity that comes from that.” ”
Professor Adrian Esterman, professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of South Australia, agreed, saying the low infection rate was “not really surprising”.
“Overall Australia is in a trough, as is most of the world,” he said.
Does this mean that the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is over?
Mr Esterman said Australia was in a “much better place” than it was a few years ago, but with more than 22,000 cases so far in March, more data was still coming in. He said he would come.
“This is just the tip of the iceberg. Australia is still quite inundated with coronavirus because the vast majority of people are no longer reporting it,” he said.
griffin said It was “inevitable.”
“It's not seasonal at the moment and it's unpredictable… but it's bound to happen,” he said.
“All we need to do is maintain a level of awareness and preparedness to continue to minimize the impact.
“We don't want to see this number go higher than it should because we're not doing the right thing.”
Australia faces a 'double whammy'. With winter approaching, Estermann warned that the next wave will arrive sooner rather than later.
“My own feeling is that we'll probably have another winter wave within four or five weeks from now,” he said.
The next wave will likely be caused by one of two things, he said.
“One is that, is rapidly mutating, and some of its descendants are now becoming fully prevalent…or perhaps other submutants will emerge. ”
With many local residents still at risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19, Australian Medical Association (AMA) vice president Dr Daniel McMullen said it was important not to become complacent. .
“As we head into winter, we have to be careful about all respiratory diseases, including coronavirus, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus,” she says.
“What may cause only mild symptoms for many people can be life-threatening for others,” she said.
“The medical advice is clear: stay home when you are sick, avoid contact with especially the frail elderly, wash your hands frequently and, of course, get up to date with your vaccinations.”
