COVID-19 never leaves — with or without a vaccineExBulletin

On August 8th, nurses show the COVID-19 vaccine manufactured by Chinese company Sinovac Biotech at San Lucas Hospital in Porto Alegre, southern Brazil.

Silvio Avila / AFP via Getty Images

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Silvio Avila / AFP via Getty Images

On August 8th, nurses show the COVID-19 vaccine manufactured by Chinese company Sinovac Biotech at San Lucas Hospital in Porto Alegre, southern Brazil.

Silvio Avila / AFP via Getty Images

Humans were not good at eradicating the entire virus. COVID-19 is no exception.

Has over 19 million people Positive worldwide COVID-19 test, And at least 722,000 people died. In the United StatesNearly 5 million people test positive and more than 160,000 die. Scientists are competing to find cures for the virus, but with or without a vaccine, COVID-19 is never gone.

But that doesn’t mean that everyone must forever self-separate.

Dr. Vineet Menachery, a coronavirus researcher at the University of Texas School of Medicine, Weekend edition One of the more likely scenarios is that the spread of COVID-19 will eventually slow down as a result of herd immunity. “If we were still wearing masks and were 6 feet away in a couple of years,” he said, the virus would eventually become less serious than a common cold.

Interview highlights

Why it’s difficult to eradicate this virus

The first thing to remember is that we have not been successful in eradicating many viruses. The only real exception is smallpox, but many of these viruses are present not only in human populations but also in animal populations. Therefore, the coronavirus may be removed from the human population as follows: SARS coronavirus In 2002, we know that these viruses, or viruses like them, still exist in nature and could potentially get tools that reappear in humans.

About the prospects of COVID-19 immunity when more people are exposed to the virus

So it’s still floating in the air. COVID-19 is very unique in several ways. One, like the common cold coronavirus, spreads very easily, but unlike this, it causes this serious illness. What we know about common cold coronaviruses is that immunity to them does not actually stay that long. So, what’s not clear is whether immunity declines over time, and within a couple of years it can be exposed and re-infected with this virus. Similar to how to get a common cold coronavirus every few years.

On the other side, Viruses such as SARS and MERSIf you are infected with these infections, overcome them, and recover, the immune reaction generally lasts for a long time. So what you don’t know about COVID-19 is which of these two poles to reach.

What he predicted about the future of COVID-19

I would be surprised if you were still 6 feet away from the mask a few years later. I think the most likely outcome will eventually reach the herd’s immunity. The best way to obtain collective immunity is via a vaccine and a specific population that has already been or will be exposed.

And the hope I have is that this virus will actually be the next common cold coronavirus. What we don’t know about these common cold coronaviruses is whether they have undergone a similar transition period.

Therefore, it refers to something like OC43, a common cold coronavirus originally derived from cattle. It has been reported historically that the outbreak associated with the transfer of the virus from cattle to humans was a very serious disease, and a few years later, the virus only became a common cold. So after 3-5 years, you may still get COVID-19 by a certain population or every few years, but the hope is that it’s just a cold and each can do it. Addressed, it does not lead to hospitalization or social shutdown.

Sophia Boyd and Martha Ann Overland produced and edited an audio version of this story.

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