UK can face unprecedented scale of Covid-19 mass testing and contact tracing

I am pleased to read that former Secretary of Health Jeremy Hunt has called on the government to follow the WHO recommendations on COVID19. In addition to mass testing, quarantine and contact tracking are all unprecedented. Here is his work:

I can do it. Roche Diagnostics’ cobas 8800 can test 2,500 samples per day.

400 of these machines test one million samples a day.

Image text: Just as you increased the production of Spitfire in World War II, you need to increase these productions.

400 of these machines can test 1 million samples of COVID-19 per day.

Cobas 6800 from Roche Diagnostics.
This machine can test 2,500 COVID19 samples per day

Images from this post: Blood center testing Zika

See details So what to do? In my long article

Critical Care Testing of Hundreds of Healthcare Workers by UK Government-This Must Scale Up

The UK government is testing hundreds of healthcare workers in emergency care this week, and they are naturally prioritizing.

From experience in other countries, it must already be in our hospital. In Italy, Nearly 5000 health workers are infected with the virus As of March 20. As of this writing, 50 Italian physicians have died from COVID-19 to date. This includes 21 general practitioners and 4 dentists. You can read the list Use Google Translate here (continuously updated).

We are the first country in the world to not mildly test patients and health care workers for COVID-19 (the Netherlands sadly follows our example). There may now be far more infected healthcare workers than in Italy.

Text: many 1.2 million NHS health workers May have COVID-19

Can be infected a few days before symptoms appear

Images from here: Labor force

Tests need to be significantly increased. Our top priority is to test these workers. Of course, it is symptomatic, but it can be transmitted for several days before the symptoms appear. Therefore, all traces found must be contacted.

It is not necessary to test all 1.2 million NHS health-care workers as symptomatic or asymptomatic. But if you want to stop it really quickly, that’s what to do. Meanwhile, all symptoms must be tested, quarantined for the appropriate time recommended by WHO, and used before the UK moves into the “delay” phase (not just 7 or 14 days at home). Check for symptoms in 14 days.

Some nurses and physicians with COVID-19 may have spread the disease to the community before it appears. So, if anyone finds it, you need to contact everyone else with whom they have been in close contact in the past few days and quarantine for 14 days.

They are just the beginning. We need to test everyone with symptoms in the UK. Track contacts.

Massive expansion of diagnostic tests

We need to scale up mass production of these machines and other forms of testing for ourselves and the world.

But we can do this. Could mobilize defense funding levels of spending on COVID-19. Eventually, we will spend billions of dollars on large wars. Why not a war with the virus?

In World War II, there were factories that manufactured hundreds of Spitfires. 22,000 were built during World War II..

You can do the same thing, but this time create a machine that tests hundreds or thousands of COVID-19s and test millions of samples a day. These machines are there for everyday medical care in the future and for the next pandemic.

You can do this for fighting human enemies and you can do it to fight viruses.

No other country has spread it to their healthcare system like us. Show the world how you can fight back!

This is another article I am writing to support the people I support Facebook Doomsday Riot GroupFind us, because sometimes such stories are scary enough to feel suicide.

Please share this widely. In particular, draw the attention of experts who have the ears of British decision makers, journalists and politicians.

Large scale up in contact tracking

You need to keep track of your contacts as you did by March 11, but in a larger way it’s far larger than any other country. Because only the more severe cases are counted, wew can be several times the number of cases recorded to find and contact the trace.

Text: Contact tracing needs to be restarted on a large scale

China, South Korea and Italy have all shown ways to do it in thousands of cases.

We have a big challenge now, but we can make it happen with the legendary British fighting spirit

This figure was used by the UK government to explain contact tracking before it stopped. to see Coronavirus (COVID-19) Expert Interview: What is Contact Tracking?

Or test all patients symptomatic or asymptomatic, such as Vo Eugeano, if the diagnostic tests can be raised enough. Then you can stop this very quickly.

Vo Euganeo reduced the number of cases of COVID-19 by 90% in two weeks, after which there were no new cases. They are, so far, the only communities in the world that fully test the entire population. They first started by clearing the virus from hospitals, and then to the entire population of the small town.

Physical distinction is a defense-must go after the virus, find and contain it

Physical distance is only a defense. We need to attack aggressively and win this game.

WHO’s Real Priorities for COVID19

• Test all suspected cases of COVID19, isolate them while waiting for the test, and isolate those who have it.
• Track all contacts in cases confirmed 2 days prior to the onset of symptoms. Ask all contacts to quarantine up to 14 days after contact
• Test all COVID19 contacts if symptoms occur.
• Isolate infected individuals until 14 days after symptoms improve.
• Physical distance is a defense. All that can be done is to buy us time. You can’t win without overtaking the virus

For more information, What does WHO recommend to us? In my long article

And you need to increase the quarantine period. 7 days is not enough. Household 14 days is not enough. Many people with mild illness may no longer be infectious, but if they continue to develop severe illness in the second week, they will die for up to two weeks after symptoms disappear, or if they die It continues to be infected.

UK policy guided by simulated FLU is not real COVID19

The UK has a different policy than the WHO recommendation because it uses mock flu to guide policies rather than data from actual illness.

Key differences between UK mock flu and reality

1. The virus that causes COVID-19 is not in the air-spreads through drops of water falling to the ground in seconds.
   The simulated virus propagates through the air and infects simply by breathing X.
2. The majority of infections in China (perhaps 75-85%) occurred at home. Most of the rest is due to other forms of close or prolonged contact. ✔
   One third of transmissions occur to random strangers in the community X
3. Almost all infections with COVID-19 are from cases that show significant symptoms at some point.
   One third of infections are asymptomatic case X

For more information, What does WHO recommend to us? In my long article
And Survey of Imperial College London In the same article

There are many stories that claim this virus is allibon. No, it is different. Excludes some medical procedures such as intubation.

This is Dr. Maria von Kerkhove, who leads the WHO COVID-19 response team. Covid-19 says not in the air For more information on my Coronavirus COVID-19 is not airborne.

This has had a significant impact on our policy

UK policy compared to WHO recommendations

1. WHO: COVID19 can be stopped. ✔
   UK: COVID19 cannot be stopped but may be delayed X
2. WHO: Tests all suspected cases of COVID19. ✔
   UK: Only test if the patient needs to stay overnight in the hospital. Cross
3. WHO: Taking care of infected people at home can put others at risk. For example, both patients and caregivers need to wear medical masks. ✔
   UK: If you are infected with a suspicion of COVID-19, others in your family may already be infected or infected each other-no mask needed X
4. WHO: Quarantine lasts until the patient is free of symptoms and is then added for two weeks.
   UK: Quarantine is 7 days after first symptoms.
   In households with others, all quarantine X up to 14 days after first symptoms

For more information, Some of the key differences between UK policy and WHO recommendations In my long article

For example, Matt Hancock, Secretary of Health who tested positive for Covid 19. He says he will self-quarantine until next Thursday (7 days). It is based on the simulated flu quarantine period.

He cannot know that he will be non-infectious after seven days. It may take more or more to progress to the critical stages of the disease. If that happens, he is infectious until he recovers, and for a few days thereafter, or until he dies.

We need to stop using simulated diseases to guide our policy and return to WHO recommendations.

The model needs to be updated to match the reality urgently before it can serve real-world policies.

Details and quotes:

COVID-19 does not transmit like simulated influenza-UK policy facts confirmed in light of WHO recommendations and scientific evidence

This is a stealth virus-the first week or it is gentle for everyone

The disease appears to be mild for the first week, but a significant number lead to intensive care and die afterwards. It is confidential, and when not, the country considers it under control.

This applies to everyone in the first week and doesn’t mean anything, when Boris Johnson, Prince Charles, Secretary of Health Matt Hancock, etc., said there was only a mild version of COVID-19. that is “The calm stage”.

As a rough guide, 80% do not progress to the severe stage, but 20% do so and require hospital treatment. About 5% require invasive ventilation and probably 1% will die. Deaths increase from a small fraction of deaths under 40 to almost 20% over 90.

That’s random. A small percentage of healthy young people die. Even the majority of people over the age of 90 who are in poor health do not progress beyond the mild stages and recover.

You can protect yourself from this disease

This disease Not in the air -You can’t catch it just by inhaling the air that someone else has exhaled. Droplets that transmit it fall to the ground in a few seconds and do not move more than 1-2 meters.

That is why hand washing is very effective against this disease. You cannot completely stop getting flu or a cold. Keep the meter away, however, unless you are physically far away from others because you can get it just by blowing in.

But you can stop getting this disease.

You should wash your hands thoroughly and avoid having to touch your face, or keep your hands, eyes, nose, and mouth away from your hands. Also, do not cough, sneeze, or stand 1-2 meters away from the person speaking and do not shake hands or approach while talking. Instead, pick up your mind, Namaste, Waves, Air High Five, etc. from a distance.

This needs to be maintained until the British public is released from the virus. But you can do it! Become routine. This must be as automatic as buckling up your seat belt when you get in the car.

13 international experts who studied China for Report on joint WHO-China mission on coronavirus disease 2019 We visited the worst hot spots of the virus in China for nine days and investigated them in detail. They spent the last 1.5 days in Wuhan /

They took these reminders and could walk away again without the need for quarantine and said, “ I am not a COVID 19 contact, do not have it, I am very low risk ” .

It is more than a month ago. See Maria Wankelhof at every WHO press conference-recall she spent nine days patrolling a viral hotspot in China. She does not have COVID 19.

By following the same methods as these experts, you can not only protect yourself, but also stop all transmission chains that can pass through you and lead to others.

You can’t get it by passing a stranger who doesn’t talk to you or cough in your face. Even if there is close or long-term contact, most people do not get it. For example, if someone in a couple gets it, partners usually don’t get it, even without precautionary measures. Thus, although the risk of someone coughing your face is low, these precautions will not reach you.

Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock, Prince Charles, Others who recently tested positive in the UKI just didn’t take this advice seriously. Professor Neil Ferguson, Tweet on March 19, The first author of research at Imperial University.

I often speak to British people by PM who does not know how important this is or how to do it properly.

But if you follow this advice correctly, you can then be secure. Not only that, but each and every one of you is doing your bit to stop spreading it to others.

See below for details:

We are convinced to do this-the British people have faced many problems in the past and can do so again. Governments are also determined to do this, with strong physical distance measurements to date. But three-quarters of what we need to do is still missing.

Based on real-world WHO recommendations and experience with achievements from other countries, this is a problem to start with.