Why the true death toll far exceeds one million

According to Alan Lopez, award-winning professor and director at the University of Melbourne, the actual death toll from the worst outbreaks of the century could approach 1.8 million, with 3 million casualties by the end of the year. May reach. Global burden on disease groups.of Coronavirus Its ability to rapidly spread and infect people who show no signs of illness has made it possible to surpass measures to accurately quantify cases through extensive diagnostic tests.

“The death of a million people makes sense in itself, but is it true,” Lopez said in an interview before reaching the tally. “It’s not an exaggeration to say that the deaths of one million people are shockingly underestimated,” he said.

Accurate measurement of mortality is difficult, even in countries with advanced health care systems. The potential deaths of tens of thousands of Covid-19s in the United States were not known by official statistics from March to May. Efforts to track and mitigate the progression of the pandemic were frustrating, according to a July study.

Lack of accurate data undermines governments’ ability to implement timely strategies and policies to protect public health and promote economic recovery. As Lopez predicted, when the Covid-19 mortality rate reaches 3 million, the disease is ranked as the worst murderer in the world. A low death toll can give some people a false sense of security, and the government can downplay the virus and overlook the pandemic burden.

No system

According to data collected by Johns Hopkins University, India has identified more than 6 million Covid-19 cases, accounting for only about 95,000 of the 1 million reported deaths worldwide. The country with the highest number of infections after the United States does not have a reliable vital statistics registration system for real-time tracking of deaths. Meanwhile, in Indiana, USA, researchers found that residents of nursing homes, although not regularly tested for the virus, account for 55% of the state’s Covid-19 deaths.

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“Yes, cases are reported daily everywhere, but as soon as we move on to the next stage, like the number of hospital admissions, there is a big gap in the data,” said Christopher J., director of the institute. Murray says. For health indicators and assessments at the University of Washington, Seattle. Medical data, including the duration and symptoms of the illness, can help identify possible causes of death, he said.

Patients with heart disease, diabetes, cancer, and other chronic illnesses are at increased risk of dying from Covid-19. Some governments, including Russia, have attributed some causes of death to these patients to existing conditions, questioning the authenticity of official mortality data.

WHO guidelines

In July, Russia recorded 5,922 deaths from Covid-19. At least 4,157 other deaths were associated with the coronavirus, but were not included in the tally due to how the country defines such deaths. Overall, the death toll in July was 29,925 more than in the same month of 2019.

WHO prepared guidance in June to classify deaths from coronavirus, regardless of whether it is a confirmed case and unless there is a clear alternative cause, if the patient has symptoms of the disease. Advised countries to count the deaths. According to the organization, Covid-19 deaths should be counted as such, even if the existing condition exacerbates the disease. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has published similar guidelines.

Still, according to Lopez of the University of Melbourne, adopting this methodology could require healthcare professionals to prove death. His work is funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies, founded by Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News.

“Doctors learn a lot as they progress, so they don’t recognize all deaths from Covid as Covid’s death,” Lopez said.

Japan Drop

Pandemics have changed mortality patterns around the world, but not all changes are the direct result of a pandemic, he said. Physical distance measurements may have reduced road deaths and deaths caused by the flu. In Japan, which has been scrutinized due to the lack of extensive testing and relatively loose containment efforts, May deaths fell 3.5% year-on-year, despite peaking cases of Covid-19. ..

“The pandemic actually works in conflicting ways and affects mortality,” Lopez said.

Similarly, the economic cost of a pandemic (which could exceed $ 35.3 trillion by 2025) is more dependent on changes in people’s spending patterns than on deaths or government-mandated “blockade” measures. Said his professor, Warwick McKibbin. A non-resident Senior Fellow of the Australian National University’s Economics and Brookings Institution in Washington.

“We predict this outbreak will cost tens of trillions of dollars in the global economy. Changes in economic outcomes are not caused by government mandates to shut down, but by changes in personal behavior,” McKibbin said in an interview. It has been. “

Around the world, the daily increase in deaths has eased since the surge in March and April, supported by improved health care and treatment of illness. However, as the resurrection burns in Europe and North America prior to the winter and flu seasons, Covid-19 deaths could rise sharply again. The BMJ journal said last week that it took nine days for UK cases to double in mid-September to reach 3,050, compared to the previous doubling time of five weeks.

According to the CDC, Covid-19 patients between the ages of 75 and 84 are 220 times more likely to die of the disease than between the ages of 18 and 29. Older people over the age of 85 are 630 times more likely to die. Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, director of the University’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research Policy, said that the aging of the deadly cases of Covid-19 “they are elderly and will die anyway.” There is also. Of Minnesota.

“I’m really struggling with it. This is an unfortunate and very sad way to understand this pandemic. Many of the dead are very important to many of us,” Osterholm said in an interview. It’s hard to dismiss because it’s just a number because he’s a loved one. “